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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.

He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style.

Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives.

Previous analysis

2010-11 Round 38 (2).... 2010-11 Round 38 (1).... 2010-11 Round 37.... 2010-11 Round 36.... 2010-11 Round 35.... 2010-11 Round 34

Here we go again!

Hello again pals!
Welcome back for the fourth season of ScoreFive. If we have even half as much fun as last time, it'll be a treat.

If by chance this is your first attempt at the game, you've come to the right place for some inside info. Let me explain: when it comes to predicting the results of Premier League games, there are certain scores that
occur more frequently than others. If you know which the most popular ones are, and how often they are likely
to occur, you’re already halfway to a decent weekly score. (See below the table entitled Most Frequent Scores). There are also patterns relating to Home and Away performances which we need to take into account.

As fans, we can all look forward to seeing new faces like Aguero, De Gea, Gervinho and the wunderkind Lukaku; we'll have the mysteries of Queen's Park Rangers, Swansea and Norweich to unravel – but most of all, as ScoreFive competitors, we want to know what all this will mean for scorelines. On your behalf, I did some close-season research.

The 2010-11 season saw the highest ever goals total since the Premier League moved to a 38-game format in the 1990s. There were less goals at the top end of the scale (scores above 4) and less nils but more 1s and 2s.

Here are the goals details of the last three seasons, including per-game averages:

	Goals home	Goals away	Total	Avge home	Avge away	Total
2010-11	618	445	1063	1.63	1.17	2.8
2009-10	646	407	1053	1.7	1.07	2.77
2008-09	532	410	942	1.4	1.08	2.48

Note the swing towards Away goals – the willingness of visitors to attack (as exemplified by Blackpool, trademark a breath of fresh air) brought them more points, if not wins:

	Homes	Draws	Aways
2010-11	47.00%	29.00%	24.00%
2009-10	51.00%	25.00%	24.00%

The Premier League of 2010-11 was strange for another reason. The end-of-season gap between top and bottom teams over the previous 10 seasons had varied between 55 and 76 pts. with an average of 62.6. This time, it was only 47. There was change at both ends, with the three relegated teams having more cumulative points than any of previous years, and at the top, the lowest points total by a champion team since 1998. There had been no clues to suggest we'd see this turnaround. In 2009-10, the gap was 58 pts (I'm giving Portsmouth back their 9 pts deduction here) and the same in 2008-09.

So, are we going to see another season of backache for goalies and the lesser lights continuing to close the gap on the Big Boys? We'll know soon enough.

It sounds so easy....
How clever, knowledgeable (or lucky?) do you need to be to become a leading ScoreFiver? If we use last season as an example, you would have been in the top 1% of all players if you had correctly predicted an average of five results per week. A mere 50%! Doesn't sound too difficult, does it?

To make things even easier, advice is available from many quarters. Every newspaper and sports website seems to have a tipster; here at ScoreFive we have Magic Mike, who knows more than most, having performed better than the BBC's Lawro in two of the last three seasons. There are also the bookies, offering odds on every game. Right now, more the half the games in the first two rounds of the new season have an odds-on favourite. If they alone are correct, you're already ahead of the 50% target!

Unfortunately for us all, the banana skin of reality is just around the corner. In 20% of games, the underdogs win. Who were the the first team to beat last season's champions? Wolves, then bottom of the table. They also beat Chelsea, as did relegated Birmingham. Another relegated team, Blackpool, did the double over Liverpool. Maybe this predictions lark isn't so simple after all. But it's fun, so get cracking on your predictions!

I'll be dropping in from time to time during the season with information on the ScoreFive title race and bringing you stats that I hope will come in handy. Meanwhile, I'll leave you with those score details from last season.

Good luck, all!

Prof. Statto

Most Frequent Scores, 2010-11 – all 380 games

 

Score	Matches
1 – 1	52
2 – 1	40
1 – 0	40
2 – 0	30
2 – 2	27
0 – 0	25
1 – 2	24
3 – 0	20
3 - 1	14
0 - 1	14
1 - 3	13
0 - 2	13
3 - 2	10
0 - 3	9
2 - 3	7
3 - 3	6
5 - 0	4
4 - 2	4
4 - 0	4
6 - 0	3
2 - 4	3
0 - 4	3
4 - 3	3
4 - 1	3
5 - 1	2
1 - 4	2
0 - 6	1
2 - 5	1
5 - 3	1
4 - 4	1
Other	1