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A Bunch of Fives So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.  He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style. Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics. ====================================== Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives. Previous analysis Lucky 7, and unlucky 13. Hello again pals, and welcome back. All of this means we'll have some strange Prediction deadlines and even stranger completion dates. Here's the schedule: Round 17: Tuesday 20/Wednesday 21/Thursday 22 For the football addict, in the 16 days beginning Dec. 20, there are matches on 11 days, including six consecutive days of the Prem. That causes a lot of extra work for the good folk in the ScoreFive office as they try to keep up with the changes. Like us, they want some free time over the Christmas-New Year period, but don't worry, the final update of Rounds 17 and 18 and 20 will happen the day after the 10th game in the usual way, with Round 19 on Tuesday Jan. 3rd. An unbelievable result You can find those highlights in various places – here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vhqq-KYl7KA Why should anyone go to the trouble, expense and risk of trying to arrange a fix? Well, if Lyon could win the game and bring about a seven-goal improvement over their Group D rivals Ajax, they would go into the lucrative Champions League knock-out stages, with a potential added income of €10m or more. As for Dinamo, bottom of the group and without a point, they had only pride to play for – unless they were promised something more concrete, perhaps. Apart from the evidence of our eyes, there's a wealth of circumstantial detail that is worth considering. Dinamo's two previous CL home games had seen them concede only one to Real Madrid and two to Ajax, one of them a 90th-minute breakaway. In Lyon's previous five group games, they had scored only two goals, both at home to Dinamo. Add that all together and there's nothing to suggest a landslide was imminent, particularly as the half-time score was 1-1. There are reports of a kerfuffle, stramash, altercation or disturbance in the Dinamo dressing-room during the break. Conspiracy theorists might take the view that there was a difference of opinion going on about second-half tactics. At that time, in Amsterdam, Ajax were losing 0-2. Did someone in the Lyon camp decide the time was right to dangle a hefty carrot? Did some initially reject the carrot while others grabbed at it? I have read a tabloid tale of a 2.1m-pound cheque changing hands, but I think that's too far-fetched. Anyone with half a brain intent on bribery would surely use a bagful of cash, or a maletine, as they're called in Spain, where these things have been known to decide championships and relegations. Whether that's the case or not, the facts are simple: between the 46th and 75th minutes, Dinamo conceded six, none of them contenders for Goal of the Month. I heard from a Dutch friend that Ajax fans watched the highlights wondering if some elaboate joke was taking place at their expense. Their incredulity must have increased when Dinamo defender Domagoj Vida was clearly seen to wink at one of the Lyon attackers after the fifth goal went in – yes, that's on Youtube too. So, Lyon got their seven-goal turnaround with 15 minutes to spare, and along with it, the biggest away win in Champions League history. I've scoured the record books without finding any team who reversed a deficit of that size in their final group game, so maybe that's a record too. So, Lyon got their seven-goal turnaround with 15 minutes to spare, and along with it, the biggest away win in Champions League history. I've scoured the record books without finding any team who reversed a deficit of that size in their final group game, so maybe that's a record too. There is a long history of games being tilted by cash offers. Marseille were stripped of the French title they 'won' in 1992-3; Juventus likewise their 2004-5 and 2005-6 Italian Scudettos. Speaking of the Turin giants, Brian Clough was certain that Juventus’s win in the 1973 European Cup semi-final against his Derby County was fixed, but it wasn't proved until 1977. (Google 1973 + Dezso Solti + Brian Glanville and you'll find the story). In 1994, Deportivo La Coruna were denied a first ever La Liga title by a Valencia side, who, with nothing to play for except a sackful of cash promised them by Depor's rivals Barcelona, managed to hold out for a 0-0 draw. At least they weren't paid to lose! That instance too remained unproven for years until an ex-Valencia defender spilled the beans in 2007. UEFA have declined to get their hands dirty with an investigation into the goings-on in Zagreb, other than issuing an irrelevant “No suspicious betting patterns” statement. I'd be very interested to see the report that the ref (in this case Englishman Mark Clattenburg) sends to UEFA, and whether it includes comments on each side's efforts or lack thereof. If Lyon are through and Ajax out as a result of Season Tracker
Round 11 But for a couple of high scores and Swansea's draw at Liverpool, we'd have been toasting a record average and adding a heap of names to the elite Tenners club listings. As it was, we had just the one – Teenybopper (Sunderland & Australia). We had Man. Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal fans – VickyRulz, Krrish and Hawkeye – sharing the second step of the week's podium while BadaBing (no one in particular & Ireland) led them all by a two point margin on 36 pts. Outstanding tips? Not a one. Round 12 At least this round featured a number of successful left field predictions. Banking on draws is risky, but Talos and Memorabilia_Australia pulled off the trick when backing the stalemates between Sunderland-Fulham and Wigan-Blackburn. This week's Russian Roulette survivor is MickD who banked on a 'Pool win at Chelsea. Good as all those were, our Tip Of The Week had to be JD, the only player with a P5 from Stoke 2-3 QPR. The week's Top 10 was dominated by players in the upper echelons of the Global League. The top four was a Manchester clean sweep with ItalKid (Utd & Italy) finishing a point clear of Rickfil (City & UK) Acerbii (Utd & Romania) and Accent (another Utd & Romania!), all with 35 pts. Round 13 This nefarious activity was visible to the ScoreFive backroom boffins, and the Supremo decreed in the interests of fairness that only predictions made up to kick-off would apply. The definition of prediction includes the phrase 'in advance'. Those sent after a game has finished are more accurately described as results. This was a round of modest scores due to a couple of excellent away performances that fooled all bar a handful of you: Fulham's at Arsenal, and more notably, Newcastle's at Man. Utd. Cheering along with Alan Pardew at full-time was Igban in Nigeria, who banked on the visitors to secure a draw. I reckon that's good enough for Tip Of The Week, though I must give an honourable mention to Studley, who foresaw the Swansea-Villa draw In a photo finish, Xandersgrampa (UK & Aston Villa) and The_Fab (Liverpool & India) both passed the winning post with 31 pts, but it's Xanders whose name goes on our Wall Of Fame. Even though his Banker failed, his five Perfectos take precedence over The_Fab's three. Round 14 Among the players looking for a circuitous route to their bonus five, Seebecee went for for a QPR-WBA draw while Mainaeri relied on a Wolves win. Both of them got away with it, but neither challenged Ivailobg for Tip Of The Week. Leading the way among the top performers was Bearweger (Man. Utd. & Australia), the only player to amass four perfectos. Sharing second spot one point back were Unsworth1 (Everton & UK) and Anjucapp (QPR & UK). Apart from having 32 pts, this pair is united by not belonging to their club's fans league. Anjucapp has the strange distinction of belonging to nine supporters leagues, but not QPR's! Round 15 In search of noteworthy tips, we'll go first to Kenya, where Tusker FC supporter Mainaeri pocketed a risky five points by Banking on the Villa to win at Bolton. In Ireland, Kopite Adie65 decided Swansea were a safe bet to see off Fulham. Without doubt the best of the lot was to be found in Thailand, where we say 'Sawasdee' to Man. City fan Bangkok Blues. Perhaps Tip Of The Week will be some small compensation for the loss of that unbeaten record. Round 16 Not many goals around: 18 is the lowest weekend of the season. That limits your opportunities for exotic (yet successful) predictions, but I think you'd agree Maikankan (Liverpool & Ghana) and Taffy76 (Everton & Wales) deserve some recognition for their Banker bets on a draw at Newcastle. A notch higher on the quality scale were Donkor (another member of the Liverpool & Ghana club!) and Nike (Liverpool & Cyprus) who nailed the 1-1 at Wigan, which gives them each half a Tip Of The Week. We have two new names at the top of this week's notables. WullieW (Man. Utd & Scotland) collected five perfectos en route to 37 pts, edging out Y64Jonjo (Spurs & England) by one, with Paffe (Sweden) and Aussie pair Bowla and Baazzaa all sharing third place on 33. Good work, pals! There's also a result in our Last Man Standing (Banker) competition. After JuvlivYugoslavia mistakenly relied on Everton for his Bonus five, only TorreBlue is left with a perfect record. The gods of football were clearly in playful mood: TorreBlue, himself an Everton fan, won by banking on arch-rivals Liverpool! Scores are on the up!
In 2009-10, we had 20 players who finished the season with correct results of 55% (209 from 380) or above, with WengersWonderkids showing the way on 221 (58.2%). Last season, only five of you crept above the 50% mark, led by Tomhen with 194 (51.1%). After Round 15 – I compiled these numbers a few days ago – almost all this season's Top 50 are keeping up 55%, as are many others all the way down to #216 Kirpazhitn. The best of all is #23 Jonathan97, who has 91 from 149 games, an incredible 61.1%! I'll keep an eye on this and will let you know how it develops. Goal Of The Year??? Unfortunately, the 3 'finalists' are very predictable names, and in the case of one (Messi), the goal chosen isn't even his own best of the year. Anyhow, click the link, take a look, and make your choice: Another spectacular 'oggy' I'll be back after Round 20 to mull over the festive period results along with a half-time review of the ScoreFive competition. Until then pals, have a Merry Christmas, and take care. Prof. Statto
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