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  21-May-2013 10:20 GMT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.您的瀏覽器可能無法支援顯示此圖片。

He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style.

Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives.

Previous analysis

2011-12 Round 1-4.... 2011-12 Round 1(2).... 2011-12 Round 1.... 2010-11 Round 38 (2).... 2010-11 Round 38 (1).... 2010-11 Round 37

Hello again pals,
And welcome back. With no Premier League action for a week due to the Euro 2012 qualifying games, I spent a few days perusing your recent performances, and noticed a quite staggering sequence of scores by one of the players in the British Isles New Zealand Branch league. You can read about it below, along with another entrant in the ScoreFive family saga.

It's a sad fact that nowadays, half the football coverage in the media relates to money-oriented off-field events. If you're not interested in that stuff, skip past the first item to get to the nitty-gritty.

Pub v Sky? A win for the Lawyers
If a pub in the UK wants to offer its customers live Prem games on TV (and thousands do) the licensee has to pay around £10000 a season for the privilege to Sky Sports. It has been known for years that the same service provided by other European broadcasters is much cheaper, and some pubs (and even individuals) have risked Sky's wrath by acquiring one of these alternatives.

A couple of years ago, a pub owner in Portsmouth (who was being prosecuted by Sky for using a Greek service costing only £800 a year) decided to challenge Sky's claim that this was illegal. The dispute went all the way to the highest court of the European Union, which last week ruled against Sky, with some reservations. This is likely to lead to a shake-up in the way the Premier League sells it's broadcasting rights in the future, and may mean they make a smaller mountain of money as a result.

A side effect of the judgement means that anyone who wants to watch the Prem live at home in the UK (which costs around £10 a week from Sky) can legally find an alternative, at least for the next 18 months. Meantime, due to lack of clarity and perceived loopholes in the ruling, the lawyers on both sides of the argument will be busy pocketing the sort of money that only a drug cartel owner or Carlos Tevez could hope to earn. Well, not exactly earn....

Season Tracker
Each month I'll be updating the table below, so you'll have a snapshot of recent rounds and how you're doing against Mr. Average. Season highs in any category will have a yellow highlight and lows will have blue
 

Round

Basic pts

+ Banker

Results

P5s

Bankers

Goals/games

Comments

1-4 avge

16.93

20.99

50.46%

9.31%

81.41%

2.41 from 39

Record score in R2, 2 x 47 pts.

5

10.21

11.11

28.80%

4.90%

19.90%

38 & 10

 

6

20.96

24.48

60.10%

15.00%

70.40%

27 & 10

2nd highest ever basic pts (for a 10 game round)

7

18.99

23.53

57.90%

9.50%

90.80%

34 & 10

 

1-7 avge

16.84

20.43

49.80%

9.52

72.26%

2.80 from 69

Season avge = 143 pts / Global league #311

Round 5
No sooner had I said “Goals per game are down” in my last column than we get net-busting avalanche of 38. There's only been two bigger totals in our four ScoreFive seasons. A bagful of goals is great for us fans (as long as our own teams aren't on the receiving end, of course) but it does play havoc with your predictions. We had seven games with either or both teams scoring three or more, and five of them didn't yield a single P5.

It wasn't only the scores that put a spoke in your wheel: the victories for Blackburn (v Arsenal), Spurs (v Liverpool) and the three promoted clubs – two of them playing away – were all rated as the least likely result in your predictions. Amidst all this carnage, Diesel (Liverpool and Cyprus Liverpool Supporters) managed to locate seven results and three perfectos for the top score of 28 pts, four clear of Peevemeisters, Manucfc10 and Nike.

With regular Banker favourites Man. Utd and Chelsea meeting, over 50% of you turned to Arsenal and Man. City for your Bonus Five,with unfortunate consequences. Still, there were a brave few who risked less obvious alternatives. Spurs loyalist Bertie backed his boys to beat the 'Pool; Nobbie (our only Gillingham supporter) and Frankod (Cardiff City & Australia) tipped Sunderland. Bill.m and Silverfox1958 picked up 10 pts apiece when they foresaw the Villa/Newcastle 1-1 draw, and at Paddy Foley's bar in Tokyo, QPR fan Rudy was celebrating as the only player to Bank on the Rangers to win at Wolves – which gets him my Tip Of The Week accolade.

Round 6
From famine to feast! With only one surprise result and no riotous scores, the scene was set for you to compensate for the previous week's poor haul. There were close-to-record points in all categories except Bankers, though Stoke knocked the cherry off many cakes. The Potters back four held out against Chelsea in August, which suggested that Man. Utd wouldn't have an easy ride either. So it proved and only 11% of you pocketed result points, while 44 away Bankers bit the dust. Why did 15% of you Bank on Everton away at Man. City? I think I know the answer – see Banker warning below.

At the end of all this, we had a remarkable leading group. With 41 pts, the top player of the week was United fan 4inarow. That's his third time atop the podium, and that's why he has three stars against his name on the Global league table – the only one with that distinction, I believe. For the second week running, Peevemeisters (Carlisle Utd & British Isles New Zealand Branch) was one place behind, on 40 pts.

Sharing second spot was newcomer Carlet from Mauritius, who supports no-one in particular. One place further back with 39 pts was Letjcl (Leeds Utd & Scotland) also of Mauritius! You don't know it? Check your atlases, folks; the tiny island is off the east coast of Africa, and unless I'm very much mistaken, our Mauritian pair are related. On this occasion, the bragging rights went to the female side of the family, with Carlet (she) picking up five perfectos while Letjcl (he) had four. Nice to see that the ScoreFive family mafia (see my previous column) is extending.

In fifth place was Mainaeri, a supporter of the wonderfully-named Tusker FC of Nairobi, one of Kenya's top teams. He's now installed on the Famous Fives page where his 10 results (including four P5s) qualified him as the latest member of the elite Tenners Club, our fourth this season.

Round 7
The ScoreFive Supremo's a busy chap, jetting round the globe in his other life as an international businessman. This is a distraction from ScoreFive matters, and for the last couple of years, he's had no time for promoting our game to a wider audience. Despite this, the number of ScoreFivers has gradually grown via the bush telegraph and word of mouth recommendations, and that's how Round 7 came to have our biggest ever number of active players.

The gods of football were again in generous mood and served up plenty of goals in celebration of our 'record attendance', if I can call it that. At Craven Cottage and Bolton, they were too generous; we didn't have a single P5 from either of those hammerings. While those games were good news for your Result points, Stoke's loss at Swansea wasn't. That aside, you did well, with the ScoreFivers first-choice prediction matching seven results.

With no unique perfectos and most of you Banking safely on Man. Utd. and Liverpool, I found it hard to locate outstanding predictions. Among the Bankers, I suppose Seebecee and JackBauer qualify as outstanding, but only because they were so spectacularly wrong in trusting Bolton and QPR to bring them those extra five points. If outstanding also has to include accurate, then Vic008 and Garfee deserve a mention for their selection of a draw at Sunderland, but I'm selecting 664NOTB and MasterFrosto to share Tip Of The Week for their oh-so-close 0-5s at Bolton, which earned them 8 pts.

After being mysteriously absent in earlier weeks, UK players figured prominently among the Round 7 leaders. With 36 pts, Dunscar (of Manchester, and United) shared second place with Firecracker (Teesside and Arsenal – a rare combination!), with Nobbie, Richie299 and our old pal HelloArthur2000 close behind. It's difficult to post a top score in two successive rounds, but Peevemeisters has achieved something no other player ever has – three successive podiums! After finishing second in the two previous rounds, the Carlisle fan from Down Under went one better and topped the heap this time with 37 pts via nine results and three P5s.

He's hot, but who's not?
Peevemeisters three-round haul of 101 pts has seen him rocket up the Global League from outside the Top 100 to #4. This set me wondering how he compares with other in-form players. Here are the Round 5-7 hotshots: 

  Player

R7 pts

Results

Goals

P5s

Banker

Total

#4

 Peevemeisters

37

46

30

10

15

101

#14

 Diesel

27

40

24

5

15

84

#126

 Chris

31

36

23

7

15

81

# 85

 Nitin_04it480

31

34

24

7

15

80

#41

 Lynchm

30

38

22

5

15

80

Just off the caption, JonnyCurmudgeon, Lano23, GuoBe, Dunscar, Firecracker and Muskir are also on a charge.

While they were prospering, some previous high-flyers have been going through a torrid spell. None of ArseneAboutFace, Bryal51 or AndreasJaeger could muster a score of 40, against the average of 59 pts, The three ScoreFive office cleaners also featured among the laggards. Floor's nice and clean though....

At the top of the Global League, JoshTz on 195 pts leads Muskir by three, then there's a gap of 11 to Hongkongmui, who's followed by Peeve, Ctz and Bada Bing. JollyRoger62, Same-11, Dunscar and Gopher51 complete the Top 10. The price of admission to the Top 20 is currently 170 pts.

Banker warning
We have a couple of hundred new players with us this season (welcome, all) and I'm pretty sure some haven't yet got the hang of this Banker business. How else to explain so many Banking on Blackburn to beat Arsenal in Round 5 and and 15% of you relying on Everton to get a point at Man. City in Round 6?

Both those games were at the top of the Predictions Page, and the no. 1 game always gets a disproportionately large share of Bankers, probably because it's the default setting. If you don't make your own selection, that's what you get, automatically. If the no. 1 game has Arsenal at home, even with their recent difficulties, they're a good bet, but in Rounds 8 and 9, the games at the top of the list are very debatable. Liverpool v Man. Utd? Wolves v Swansea? They're not my idea of certainties, but I'm sure we'll see big numbers of players leaving that little button on the right of the screen untouched. Perhaps you'd like to pass this information on to your friends and rivals....or maybe not?

Last Man Standing
The competition to be the final player with a perfect Banker record is already hotting up. After four rounds, we had 180 unblemished records, but those Arsenal and Man. City defeats in Round 5 brought the number down to 30. A few more have fallen by the wayside since, and going into Round 8, there are 27 of you, spread as far down the Global League as Apollo1209 at #351, though there's only two among the Top 20.

Shoot-out sensations
When your team's record in penalty shoot-outs isn't too hot (yes, I'm thinking of England), you tend to dread the next one, but they can provide unparalleled drama. The Champions League finals involving Man. Utd-Chelsea and Liverpool-AC Milan will live long in the memory, but we've recently had a pair of less-exalted games that were both remarkable in their own way.

I'll begin with a story that should inspire all goalkeepers. In the Copa Argentina last week, Excursionistas and Argentino De Merlo finished 1-1 after extra time. In the shoot out, Excursionistas 'keeper Marcos Fasanella proceeded to save five of the six spot-kicks he faced! It's a good thing he did, as his team mates were wasting this advantage by firing blanks. Just to show them how it's done, when it was his turn, Marcos confidently stepped forward and scored, and his team finally squeaked through 2-1. Here are the highlights, with unnecessary added shred-metal soundtrack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klhu60e1HmQ

Secondly, one for the 'keepers to forget. It occurred last month in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, a cup competition for English lower-league clubs. When Dagenham & Redbridge met London neighbours Leyton Orient, they too finished 1-1 to set up what turned out to be a protracted shoot-out. Every player on both sides scored with his first kick, so at 11-11 the sequence began again. At 14-13, Orient's Ben Chorley went for the bottom right corner with the 28th penalty, but Daggers goalie James Shea, an Arsenal trainee on loan, got a hand to the ball to end the marathon.

In case you're wondering if 27 netted in succession is a record, the answer is no. Just to prove that not all Argentinians are rubbish from the spot, there was a regional game in 2009 between General Paz Juniors and Juventud where all the first 40 kicks were successful! The Juniors 'keeper saved no. 41 then knocked in no. 42 himself to give his side a 21-20 win.

Until next month, pals, take care.

Prof. Statto

 






 














 





 

 

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