Technology Partner


Community Partners

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Previous analysis

Week 22.... Week 21.... FA Cup Round 3.... Weeks 19 and 20.... Week 18.... Week 17

Concentrating on the League or Hammer and Tongs?

Hello again, friends,

This weekend brings us the Fourth Round of the FA Cup, and with it, another chance of glory for the underdogs, not to mention humiliation for those of higher pedigree. Come to think of it, that applies in Score Five too – we’ve a few lesser-known players in our FA Cup Top 10.

As we all know, Man City and Stoke made a dog’s breakfast of their Third Round ties against so-called inferior opposition, and this time, nine Prem clubs will be looking warily at sides from lower levels of the Football League and repeating the usual mantras, “We’ll give our opponents full respect”, “There are no easy games” etc. I’ll be interested to see the forecasts of our seven Score Five Paragons Of Prognosis who were so successful in locating the Third Round upsets to see if they can repeat the feat.

Whatever they may say publicly, the FA Cup is of secondary importance in the minds of the four managers with upcoming Champions League commitments. Expect to see some of their squad players getting a run-out, but probably not at Anfield, where local pride is again at stake. Will 85% of you back Liverpool to win against their neighbours as you did last week?

Half the draw is made up of ties where the losers won’t be too unhappy. League concerns – and in one case, European aspirations – will put extra pressure on the winners of the games at Hull, West Bromwich, Sunderland, Wolverhampton, Sheffield Utd, Derby, Watford and Doncaster.

To my mind, this leaves four ties where the participants will see the Cup as the focus of their season, with both sides going hammer and tongs for the win. Each of these games is a Big v Small clash, with the big boys having reason to worry. Non-league Kettering host Fulham while West Ham make the trip to League One Hartlepool, conquerors of Stoke City in the Third Round. Small at home to Big, pals, the first requirement for a Cup upset! Let’s not forget little Torquay: the Conference side saw off Blackpool last time, and they must view a home match with Coventry as equally winnable. That leaves us with Portsmouth v Swansea. Tony Adams’ men are struggling, and have won only one of their eight League and Cup games in December and January. Swansea are undefeated during the same period. If none of these four games provides a surprise, it would almost be a surprise!

Let me remind you of two stats from the Third Round: in the 32 ties, 13 teams got a draw or better against opponents from higher up the league ladder. Of the 14 Premier League teams who met sides from lower divisions, only nine managed a win at the first attempt.

Learning from experience
When you check your Score Five performance each week, how do you assess whether it’s good, bad or indifferent? The average score has varied between a dozen in weeks when the form book has been upset and 20-plus when the Big 4 all win and there are a few 2-1s.

Over the season, you need to have kept up an average of 15 points per week for a place in the Global Top 100. That would mean you now have 330 points, probably via locating 4 Results (for 8 pts) 6 Goals (6 pts) and 1 Bonus (for a Perfect 5) each week. Some players find more in one category and less in another, but you get my drift, I’m sure. One point more per week would see you in the Top 50. Two points more and you’re in the Top 20. How can you find those extra points? Obviously, you want more Results, and when you get Results, you want to turn them into Perfect 5’s.

I took a look at your predictions for last week: a few calculations confirmed that your goal forecasts for the now-Big 5 tended to the high side, as they have done on many occasions this season. With 217 Premier League matches played, there have been only 31 with three-goal margins. Of those 31, the Big 5 account for only 14. Here are the average Home/Away goalscoring records of the Big 5 to date. I’m no tipster, but I think you can draw your own conclusions, and hopefully profit from them.

Average goals scored per game by the Big 5 up to Jan. 20th

Team	Home	Away
Arsenal	1.63	1.72
Aston Villa	1.63	1.72
Chelsea	1.72	2.09
Liverpool	1.54	1.72
Man Utd.	2.40	0.90

Back to weekly scores for a moment. There are even players outside the Top 100 who are keeping up that 4-Results-per week basis, but in all of the Score Five ranks, only one – Global #4 lano23 – is actually managing five per week at today’s date. It’s a small margin between Okay and Hooray! Speaking of exceptional performers, it’s time to check on this week’s

Top Players
Late goals from the top sides meant that by the end of Saturday’s games, most of you were looking good for 20+ points. (How come you regularly predict the early game results correctly more often than those of Sunday/Monday?). Some anticipated mega-scores were curtailed to merely good scores when the games at White Hart Lane and Anfield failed to produce the home wins that almost everyone expected.

Why were so many surprised by the result of the Liverpool derby? Liverpool have been far from invincible at Anfield (6-4-0 going into the game) and Everton hadn’t conceded a goal in six games. A few wise heads among you went for a draw, and a 1-1 draw too! Maybe that’s the sort of decision that has helped johnw, Gilberto’s Goldmine, nick1 and Kevin become Top 20 players, folks. #23 Katona777 and #45 DerekA were on the mark too.

Anyone who exceeded 25 pts gets star treatment this week, but top of the bill is angelo, who not only forecast all 10 results, but picked up four Perfect 5s along the way. His score of 35 pts sees him surge up the Global ladder to third place.

Player	League	Supports	Pts
Angelo	Look at the Sea	Nobody	35
Go Behind seagulls	AMNAS 1	Brighton	27
Kevin	Meywin	Man Utd	27
Grant	Crossmark	West Ham	26
Lano23	Liverpool GS	Liverpool	26

 

Baleful influence
Baseball statisticians have a particular way of assessing a player’s worth: they measure the team’s percentage of wins with him in the side, and the percentage when he isn’t playing – in baseball, there are no draws of course. What would they make of Spurs defender Gareth Bale? Last weekend he equalled one of the most unwanted records in football. He has now appeared 21 times in the Premier League and has never experienced a win. The other unfortunate with whom he shares this ‘achievement’ is Giles Barnes, who was a member of that awful Derby side last season. Strangely, both players are very highly rated young prospects, tipped by many to become top internationals. Curious too that they share the same initials.

There was much pre-game publicity about Bale’s chance of reaching the landmark when Portsmouth visited White Hart Lane, so when David Nugent put the visitors ahead in a game that Spurs were dominating, the young lad must have felt cursed. Maybe Harry Redknapp also knew the story: on 68 minutes, he removed the left-back, and as if by magic, Spurs equalised two minutes later. Will Harry persist with him, or will he be shipped out to make way for someone luckier? How about Rafael Da Silva, Man. Utd’s young Brazilian fullback, for example? From his debut on the opening day of the season, he now has nine Prem. appearances (total 606 minutes) under his belt, and he hasn’t even conceded a goal: which team you play for does make a difference.

Bale can console himself with the fact that outside the Prem, there are others who have fared worse than him. There were several members of the Crewe Alexandra side who were ever-present through their club’s 30-match winless run of league games in the season 1956-57. Somehow, I doubt they have an annual reunion.

Good luck with those FA Cup predictions.

Until next week, pals,

Regards,
Prof. Statto