So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.
He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:
“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown
Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.
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Previous analysis
Weeks 25/26.... Weeks 23/24.... FA Cup Round 4.... Week 22.... Week 21
Hello again pals,
You can be forgiven if you’re feeling a bit confused. We still haven’t completed Prem Round 25, there’s a Cup 4th Round replay next Monday night, yet somehow, this Saturday is 5th Round Day. This is due to rescheduled postponements. Those two odd fixtures on the end of your Predictions last week (Portsmouth v Man. City, Feb. 14th and Man. Utd v Fulham, Feb. 18th) are games that should have taken place weeks ago. Likewise, the Arsenal v Cardiff 4th Round replay was called off last week, so the winners of that game on Monday will have to wait for their 5th Round battle with never-say-die Burnley until some time next week after everyone else has heard the 6th Round draw.
If you were among the first 28 to enter your Cup predictions and wondered how come Arsenal v Burnley was in the list as a 5th Round match, I can tell you that a pair of the mischievous ScoreFive gremlins, one a Gooner and the other a Swansea supporter, decided to save Arsenal the trouble of that Monday replay, and fiddled the fixtures. As punishment, they have been sent to count the goals at the next three Fulham away games.
It’s a pity they couldn’t have fiddled a few of the others. We have two all-Prem games and five between Prem and Championship teams – no doubt exciting for all those involved, but for the rest of us, a bit lacking compared to those Little and Large Cup dramas we so enjoy. Everton versus the Villa (3rd vs. 6th) has the makings of an interesting encounter, but both managers would prefer to climb a rung up the Prem ladder than win this game. The other top-flight meeting sees the Irons take on Ironopolis, and we can definitely expect the clang of weaponry in that one. Better known as West Ham and Middlesbrough, the Cup is their only chance of success this season.
Man. Utd go to Derby’s Pride Park mindful of the fact that they have already lost a Cup game there this season. Sheffield Utd, Swansea and Watford, all with home advantage, will take heart from knowing that their opponents, Hull, Fulham and Chelsea were all knocked out by lower league teams in 2008. This time last year, Liverpool v Barnsley was an routine-looking 5th Round game….and we know what happened there! Hey ho, maybe its not such a bad set of fixtures after all!
Fancy a new job?
When the news of Luis Felipe Scolari’s sacking broke on Monday, some quick-witted journalist suggested Chelsea sacked him so they could get to Avram Grant ahead of Portsmouth. It’s ironic that Grant, sacked for not delivering an exciting enough brand of football at Chelsea, enjoyed a better record than his World-Cup winning successor, and indeed, all other managers in recent Premier League history apart from Alex F. & Jose M.
The football gossip columns are saying Grant is on his way back to Portsmouth. If so, it will be interesting to see whether he can arrest the slide that began before ’Arry fled the coop to Spurs.
Here’s how the best managers of recent years compare, on points-per-game at least.
| Manager |
Games |
Points |
Average |
|
Alex Ferguson ’08-09
|
24
|
56
|
2.33
|
|
Jose Mourinho ’04-07
|
120
|
280
|
2.33
|
|
Avram Grant ’07-08
|
32
|
74
|
2.31
|
|
Alex Ferguson ’07-08
|
38
|
87
|
2.29
|
|
Arsene Wenger ’07-08
|
38
|
83
|
2.18
|
|
Rafa Benitez ’08-09
|
25
|
54
|
2.16
|
|
Martin O’Neill ’08-09
|
25
|
51
|
2.04
|
|
Rafa Benitez ’07-08
|
38
|
76
|
2
|
|
L. F. Scolari ’08-09
|
25
|
49
|
1.96
|
|
Arsene Wenger ’08-09
|
25
|
44
|
1.76
|
Obviously, what fans think rarely matters to club owners, but 50,000 respondents to a BBC online poll on Monday voted 70%-30% that Abramovich made a mistake in dumping Big Phil. The Beeb didn’t ask “Could you manage Chelsea into the Champions League?”, but if they had, I think they’d have got a 90% ‘Yes’ response. The Blues have 13 games left. Unlucky, Mr. Hiddink?
Weekly round up
Technically, Round 25 doesn’t finish until Feb. 18th, but the weekend’s programme gave most of you the opportunity to improve your average scores. With only that Chelsea 0-0 Hull scoreline causing shockwaves, most of you picked up six or more results without difficulty. Perfect 5’s however were at a premium. How many of you thought Chelsea wouldn’t score? It was a round number…. So, no 5’s, but let’s doff our caps to the romantics (or cynics?) who gave Hull for the draw. Well done, Fenric, mdhere4u and giannisioannou. A quick check of the 2-3s in the Frequent Scores List shows that we’d had a mere four in 24 Rounds, until two came along together on Saturday: only bakkerman was savvy enough to go for that scoreline at Fratton Park. In the clash of the Defensive Sieves at the Hawthorns, that man Fenric was on the money again.
Top Players
It’s still tight at the top of the global ladder. As soon as one player gets his nose in front, he’s reeled in by the pursuing pack. Boosted by an average of 20.6 pts for the previous five Rounds, Antomeno has been our numero uno since Christmas. Despite a reasonable 19 pts this week, eight of the Top 20 gained ground on him. Two dozen sets la crème de la crème aside from the rest this week:
| Player |
League |
Supports |
Points |
|
Doni Alfauzi
|
Big Reds
|
Liverpool
|
28
|
|
Michael B
|
FSF
|
Sunderland
|
27
|
|
ArseneAboutFace
|
AMNAS1
|
Arsenal
|
25
|
|
Nick 1
|
Man Utd GS
|
Man Utd
|
25
|
|
Obi van Kenobi
|
Crossmark
|
Arsenal
|
24
|
Aim low and hit the mark
It’s often the difference between success and failure. The striker’s through on goal, but he leans back and skies his shot over the bar. We all know he should have aimed low…. This applies among you ScoreFivers too. Next time you’re doing your Predictions, remind yourself of this and consider aiming low as a way of boosting your score.
Many of you are still inclined to overestimate the likely number of goals. You clearly don’t like predicting 0-0s, for example. In each of the last two weeks, five games have finished with one goal or less. Of those 10 games, there was good reason to suggest at least half would be low-scoring, tight affairs, yet few followed that option. Here’s how you forecasted them:
|
Round
|
Match
|
0 or 1 Goal
|
3 Goals or more
|
|
24
|
Stoke 1-0 Man. City
|
13%
|
46%
|
|
24
|
Arsenal 0-0 West Ham
|
17%
|
52%
|
|
24
|
Aston Villa 0-0 Wigan
|
23%
|
44%
|
|
24
|
Middlesbro’ 0-0 Blackburn
|
37%
|
35%
|
|
24
|
Man. Utd. 1-0 Everton
|
16%
|
37%
|
|
25
|
Chelsea 0-0 Hull
|
3%
|
48%
|
|
25
|
Man. City 1-0 Middlesbro’
|
10%
|
46%
|
|
25
|
Spurs 0-0 Arsenal
|
4%
|
60%
|
|
25
|
West Ham 0-1 Man Utd
|
19%
|
48%
|
|
25
|
Wigan 0-0 Fulham
|
12%
|
40%
|
| |
Average |
15.4%
|
44.8%
|
The TV companies don’t give much airtime to 0-0s, folks, they’re bad for business – there are more of them than you realise! Here is the Top 10 from this season’s Most Frequent Scores:
|
#1
|
2 - 1
|
29
|
11.7%
|
|
#2
|
0 - 0
|
27
|
10.9%
|
|
#3
|
1 - 0
|
24
|
9.71%
|
|
#4
|
1 - 1
|
23
|
9.31%
|
|
#5
|
0 - 1
|
21
|
8.50%
|
|
#6
|
2 - 0
|
17
|
6.88%
|
|
#7
|
2 - 2
|
15
|
6.07%
|
|
#8
|
1 - 2
|
15
|
6.07%
|
|
#9
|
3 - 0
|
14
|
5.66%
|
|
#10
|
0 - 2
|
10
|
4.04%
|
A key stat for you to bear in mind at Prediction Time: games with two goals or less account for 49.3% of all scores.
Judging by appearances
I haven’t seen any mention of it on TV or in the sports press, but by my calculations, when Portsmouth host Man. City in this weekend’s only Premier League game, David James will set a new Prem appearances record by passing Gary Speed’s total of 535 games. In the unlikely event that he retires in May – and given the ahem, ‘quality’ of the defensive ‘cover’ he’s had to cope with this season, who would blame him if he did? – it’ll be a while before anyone else challenges his achievement. There’s only one other current member of the 500 Club. Among active players, we have:
Ryan Giggs 511
Sol Campbell 469
Emile Heskey 426
Frank Lampard 415
Together with Rio Ferdinand, four of Fergie’s 1995 “You’ll never win anything with kids” team (Scholes, Butt and the Nevilles) are nudging the 400-barrier, but the only other player within reach of it is Jamie Carragher, unless Dwight Yorke and Robbie Fowler experience rapid renaissances.
Best of luck to you all for the weekend
Regards,
Prof. Statto
Technology Partner
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