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A Bunch of Fives So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.  He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember: “98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown Professor Statto and his amazing statistics. ====================================== Previous analysis Week 39.... Week 38.... Week 37.... Week 36.... Week 35THE HONOURS BOARD, AND HOW TO GET ON IT Greetings all, Though two of the four Semi-finals resulted in accusations (justified, in my opinion) of results being affected by refereeing errors, I think we can all agree that the ‘right’ teams won both the Champions League Final and the FA Cup Final. In the Rome match, it was strange to see Man. Utd’s passes going astray with such regularity, but even if they’d been their usual tidy selves, I think Barcelona still had enough quality to win with something to spare. At Wembley, Everton’s goal before some spectators had settled in their seats at least gave some balance to what thereafter became a pretty one-sided affair. Chelsea were at their best. With the press already anticipating a heap of summer signings at the Bridge, I’m surprised no one has said “What is there to fix? It don’t look broke to me” ScoreFive-wise, the Champions League gave us our first double-winner, with Antomeno adding this title to his Bundesliga win. Runner-up Christina became the first lady to get her name in our records. Of the four players in with a chance of winning the FA Cup, three had a hand on the trophy at various stages of the match. Although 2-1 was the score favoured by the highest percentage of players, by chance, none of our leading quartet backed it. The 0-0 forecast of Go Behind Seagulls put them in front for all of 25 seconds, until Louis Saha’s goal ruined their day and handed the advantage to Gilberto’s Goldmine and their 0-1 estimate. Chelsea’s equaliser restored the pre-match leader, and when Frank Lampard put the Blues ahead to stay, it consolidated Johnno11’s position at the top – his 2-0 bet was worth 3 pts. 128break, having gone for the same score, was destined to finish the day as he started, 3 pts behind the leader, although like Everton, he does have the consolation of being Runner-Up. Congratulations to our top pair. Right, that’s the last of the season’s silverware accounted for. Just pass me that hammer would you….ta very much. It’s time to put up the SCOREFIVE HONOURS BOARD 2008-09 Premier League Competition
FA Cup Competition
Champions League Competition
Bundesliga Competition
Highest Weekly Scores by a player:
by a League:
Best Results prediction
Top League
Our inaugural ScoreFive season has been a lot of fun, but for some players, the end came at the wrong time, when they’d sharpened up their acts and got into the habit of regularly finding those 20 pts per week that you need to be in the hunt for honours. As a measure of the learning curve we’ve all been through, consider the difference between the two halves of the season as illustrated at both ends of our Top 20:
You could have expected it to be tougher to score points after the halfway stage because there was a marked shift in the pattern of goalscoring (a 20% reduction from mid-November to March) but despite this, players were gaining experience, refining their prediction skills and gradually boosting their averages. I’ve a feeling the Supremo’s Pop-up Prediction Display came in very handy for most of you – it’s useful to know what your opponents are thinking. I hope my info on scores, results and Home/Away goal distribution has been of benefit too. For Your Eyes Only. Psst…. Over here! Want some valuable information? I’ve been talking with Dr. Richard, ScoreFive’s top boffin – and he’s run a special program for me. The details below show you the 2008-09 season’s Premier League scores breakdown, and alongside it, your whole season’s Predictions breakdown!
* = games involving any score above 4 From this chart we can see the difference between what really happened and what you expected. If the percentage on the right isn’t close to that on its left, your forecasts were off-target. I’ve picked out several points that I think you would do well to heed: - Games with one goal or less (0 – 0, 1 – 0, 0 – 1) accounted for 30% of results, but only 17% of predictions. - Games with two or three goals where neither side scored three (1 – 1, 2 – 0, 0 – 2, 2 – 1, 1 – 2) accounted for 38.2% of results, but 64.3% of predictions - Games where one side scored three (3 – 0, 3 – 1, 3 – 2, 0 – 3, 1 – 3, 2 – 3) accounted for 17.6% of results but only 12.9% of predictions - Games where either side scored four, five, or six accounted for almost 10% of results, but these were spread over 15 different scores. Someone asked me the other week what the Statto column was all about “Information,” I told him “and a bit of advice”. I’m not here to tell you “This is what you should do….” I prefer you to draw your own conclusions, but today, I’m going to be as blunt as I can. Unless the Premier League changes like never before during the summer break, you’ll score more points if you predict more games to have zero / one goal and less to have two / three goals. Simple as that. If you want to go a little further, go for a few more threes where last season you said twos. As for big scores – four and above – with less than one occurring per week (35 in 38 rounds) I think they’re just too hard to find. As an illustration of this, there were 34 predictions of 5 – 0, but only one was correct! My compliments to you all on one aspect of your forecasts: you did very well with the Home – Away - Draw split…no need for adjustments here:
There you have it: all the info you need to get your name on next season’s Honours Board. Naturally, you don’t want this sort of data falling into the hands of your competitors, so I suggest you print it out and destroy the evidence by eating it immediately. It’s easier if you’ve got one of those new Chinese printers that takes A4 rice paper. I’ll see you in August, pals, when we’ll be tackling a new season. Meantime, look after yourselves. Best regards, Prof. Statto
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