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A Bunch of Fives So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.  He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style. Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics. ====================================== Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives. Previous analysis Ain’t No Love In The Heart Of The City Hello again, pals, And a Merry Christmas to you all! I trust you’re already on holiday, or about to start…. Another eventful week in English football’s top tier was dominated by the sacking of Mark Hughes from Man. City, and its aftermath. The City board, especially CEO Garry Cook, came out of the affair with egg on their faces. They claimed that the decision to sack Hughes was made after Wednesday night’s 3-0 loss at Tottenham, but it soon emerged that as long ago as Dec. 2, they had offered the manager’s job to Guus Hiddink before approaching Mancini the following day. When Hughes and his men threw a spanner in the works by defeating Chelsea on Dec. 5th, the board (effectively Cook, chairman Khaldoon al Mubarak and owner Sheik Mansour) decided to wait until there were a couple of ‘easy’ games coming up before dumping Hughes, to allow the new manager the best chance of a successful start, so Mancini’s first opponents will be Stoke City and Wolves. The football journalists who attended the City press conference on Monday made their feelings very clear. They mocked Cook’s statements and aggressively challenged his view that the sacking was carried out in an honourable fashion. City lost a lot of the football community’s goodwill when they joined the ranks of billionaire’s playthings, and last weekend’s events just about exhausted the remainder. Cook & Co. can now expect to find themselves subjected to the same type of derision as Kenyon, Abramovich, Gillett/Hicks, the Glazers and whoever is in charge at Portsmouth this week. Only two people emerge from this sorry episode with any credit: Hiddink, who refused to negotiate while City still had a manager in place, and Hughes himself, who remained dignified and composed throughout. He could be forgiven if he cheers for Stoke this Saturday. Banker alert re the Big Four The travel sickness suffered by all of the Big Four last week meant that their combined Away records have now dipped below the 50% win level:
While we can expect them to falter against each other, Aston Villa, Man. City and even Spurs, it’s not only these closest rivals who have done the damage: Fulham, Burnley and West Ham have twice denied them already. Keep this in mind at Prediction time. Weekly highlights Pt 1. After Round 16’s catalogue of upsets, Round 17 went very much with form, but the midweek dates caught a whole bunch of you on the hop. The number of players was down 25% on any previous round. Here’s an early warning, folks – there’s another midweek round in January, not to mention the imminent Christmas doubleheader. The moral of the story is ‘Get those predictions in early’. Those who missed out chose a bad week to do so. The average score of 16.05 pts (20.45 including banker) was excellent for an eight-game round, and game-for-game was the second best of the season after Round 4. Correct results were 61.35%. Perfectos at 11.45% and correct Bankers at 87.80% were both in the healthy category. For the 110 players who relied on Magic Mike, he did a decent job for you, hitting the 20-mark. All this came about on account of six home wins, a draw at Burnley where Arsenal were the visitors, and a win for Aston Villa at Sunderland. If Arsenal’s failure to win was the result that raised most eyebrows, it was the comprehensive way in which Spurs beat Man. City that was the main talking point, (especially for the Sky Blues board, as we discovered at the weekend). Man. Utd also had it easy against Wolves Reserves: when the Molineux Gaffer Mick McCarthy decided to rest 10 of his regular first team, he did a big favour to the staggering 35.11% of ScoreFivers who had plumped for a 3-0 scoreline. The results at Birmingham and Liverpool also provided high levels of Perfect 5s: both scores were the second most popular prediction. It didn’t go that way at Spurs, where there wasn’t a single 3-0 forecast. With Man. Utd., Chelsea and Liverpool all at home to basement dwellers, the only players who missed out on their Bankers were 14 of the Fixture #1 Forgetful Squad and a dozen Arsenal fans who hadn’t taken into account that Burnley have a tidy home record and no respect for their betters. As always, we had a few brave types who didn’t take the easy route, and instead risked their bonus on Aston Villa and Bolton. Turns out they were right on this occasion, so I doff my cap respectively to FC Porto fan Jomego and Bolton supporter Trotters. Ain’t it nice when your own team delivers your Banker points! Top players of Round 17 We all know that Bolton aren’t prolific scorers, so predicting a 3-1 win for them isn’t going to get you five points very often, but it worked this time for seba77 and bowla, who were aware of West Ham’s less-than-secure defence when they made their predictions. Velnciemietis was unique in locating half the Perfectos en route to his 28 pts, while three of our top half dozen nailed seven of the eight results, and a few P5s to go with them – well done Stoneybroke, Big Phils B&WA and Edith.
Weekly highlights Pt. 2. The postponement of Monday night’s Wigan-Bolton match meant Round 18 had only nine games and 24 goals. The basic points averaged 14.56, and 18.28 with Banker. The correct results average was almost exactly four games (or 44%) and Perfect 5s 7.78%, which is less than one per player. Thanks mainly to Arsenal and Man. City, correct Bankers reached 74.50% A trio of unexpected results livened up both the top and bottom of the Premier League. In all three cases, the victims were members of the Big Four. Leaders Chelsea, with 93% of the ScoreFive population behind them, couldn’t force a win at 19th-placed West Ham. Man. Utd. lost at Fulham for the second season running, while stuttering Liverpool collapsed against Portsmouth, the bottom side. These last two games were remarkable for the similarity of your predictions: 5% said Home, 15% said Draw and 80% said Away. With almost 98% of players backing the Gunners and 3-0 the favourite prediction, the Arsenal-Hull game was an all-you-can-carry points fest for the majority. The games at Villa, Blackburn and Man. City were also happy hunting grounds, but the draw at Everton less so, with only 28% favouring it. Mustard at home they may be, but Burnley’s away record (one point from eight matches) persuaded 45% of you that Wolves were worth the win, and that’s the way it turned out. Apart from one treble (see below) there weren’t many notable predictions, but I found a few among the Bankers. Man. City supporter Sakas decided Spurs had a better chance at Blackburn than his own lot at home. Barclays Bank also invested in Spurs, but probably using someone else’s money. Either way, they both got it right. There are people who bet against their own team so that the disappointment of not winning is offset by some profit. Maybe that’s what Drama Queen had in mind when she Banked on a draw for the Blues at Upton Park; she was five points better off as a result. Top players of Round 18 Only one player was bold enough to predict a 2-0 win for Portsmouth over a troubled Liverpool. Only one player imagined that Fulham would beat Man. Utd by more than one goal. Only one player located eight of the week’s nine results. In all three cases, the player was Dinesh26 – a great week for him, and he has 27 pts to show for it. Not quite enough to reach our small elite group though:
As we head into the Christmas double round of games (between Saturday 26th and Weds. 30th) Wakodarena has established a 16 point lead at the top of the global ladder after a six week run in which he has compiled 140 pts. Go Behind Seagulls and Minna have also surged up the rankings in the same period. Another on a charge is last season’s champion, Gilberto’s Goldmine who has crept stealthily up from the depths to spend Christmas at #38. Those four, with Boab, Anitaavacac and BJP exceeded the six-week average of 109 pts by more than 20 pts to shake up the Top 40. People who live in glass houses…. When Arsene Wenger accused Mick McCarthy of “lack of integrity” for choosing to rest his best players for last week’s game at Man. Utd. last week, the Wolves manager was ready with a riposte. He fell off his chair – literally – in feigned laughter before reminding assembled journalists that Monsieur Wenger was the very same man who has rested his own first team from League Cup games for several years. “I’ve had many calls voicing support”, McCarthy continued, “Tiger Woods rang to say ‘Thanks for taking the heat off me’ and Thierry Henry was grateful too.” A Christmas present for you. This paragraph and the next are unashamedly an advert, but one that isn’t trying to sell you anything. In fact, I’m offering you a gift, which is simply all the information you’ve ever wanted to know about football, all over the world. There are of course record books and stats websites, but they don’t usually tell you the stories behind the results and numbers. The Knowledge does. It’s the football trivia site of the UK’s Guardian newspaper. Fans ask questions, other fans provide the answers. Want to know who are the most expensive players that never played for their country? The worst ever start to a season? The first team to field players from six continents? The youngest ever professional? All of those were covered in recent months, not to mention the curious Thomas The Tank Engine XI. There’s also the sideshow aspects of football: players Christmas parties that got out of hand were among last week’s selection. A word of warning: it is easy to get stuck in the Knowledge archives, which go back years. Here’s where to find them: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/series/theknowledge One recent Knowledge topic was Heroic Footballers. It began by talking about brave deeds, notably by Harry Gregg, the Man Utd ’keeper who pulled Bobby Charlton and Dennis Viollet from the burning wreckage of the Munich air crash before going back again to rescue a pregnant woman. The discussion broadened the following week to include various good deeds done by footballers, which brings me to one in particular. Some of you will remember England’s 1966 World Cup-winner Alan Ball, and his father of the same name, who was himself a player and manager at various clubs including Birmingham City and Preston North End. They cropped up in the following Knowledge contribution: "Back in the 1960s I broke down in the Mersey Tunnel and was towed out by Everton's ginger-haired genius and his namesake dad," writes Jim Lynch. "The next day the local newspaper, the Liverpool Echo, ran the headline: Boy pulled out of Mersey Tunnel by the Balls". Here’s hoping the Christmas fixtures bring you a sackful of ScoreFive points, pals! Make sure you’ve got your predictions in for both rounds! Prof. Statto |
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