A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.

He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style.

Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives.

Previous analysis

FA Cup Round 3.... Round 19 & 20.... Round 17 & 18.... Round 16.... Round 15.... Round 14

Snow on pitch forces cancellation. Hand grenade doesn’t.

A truncated programme due to widespread snow last weekend meant that we only had three Prem games, which brings our season total to 200 games – you could say it’s 20 rounds. The seven postponements are now creating some problems for Doc Richard and his ScoreFive boffins, as three have already been rescheduled within the next couple of weeks. Also, Man. Utd and Hull, who were due to meet during the midweek round of Jan. 26^th –27^th have brought forward their game to Saturday 23^rd, when most of the other Prem teams are involved in the 4^th round of the FA Cup. Keep a close eye on the Predictions page for Rounds 22-23-24 in case of updates, pals.

Last Sunday evening, the opening match of the African Cup of Nations had just kicked off when Mrs.Statto informed me she required to watch Top Gear which was starting 30 minutes later. During the time she was toing-and-froing to the kitchen, I managed to see most of the first half and, in the 79^th minute, Mali’s ‘consolation goal’ as the commentator described it, before being forced to return to the antics of Clarkson & Co. On Monday morning, I was hopping mad when I discovered I’d missed a cracking finale in which Mali bagged three more consolation goals to earn a 4-4 draw!

Now, four days into the tournament, there have been surprises in every group: who could have foreseen Nigeria, Cameroon and Algeria being bottom of their groups after the first round? In the only game in the remaining group (affected by Togo’s withdrawal) highly-rated Ivory Coast could only draw with outsiders Burkina Faso. In the aftermath of these upsets, we’ve been hearing plenty of ACN-equivalents of the Prem mantra “There are no easy games….” With some of the favourites now needing two results to progress, I’m keenly anticipating the second round, Mrs. Statto permitting of course. Otherwise, I’m off to the pub.

Weekly highlights

Only three games, but great entertainment! At the Emirates, Everton came within a few minutes of beating Arsenal, but even their draw was a surprise to most players. Almost 94% of you went for the home win, leaving Deivid, Ranglass, Dwayne and the surprising Statistical Norm to feel elated when the whistle went at 2-2, giving them a Perfecto apiece. Birmingham’s run of 11 unbeaten games has won over many of the doubters who considered their early-season form couldn’t last. This includes at least 30% of you ScoreFivers, who backed the home team to take something from their game with Man. Utd. With 1-1 as the second favourite score, 73 players picked up five points from the draw, with one of the four mentioned above among them.

As the Man. City-Blackburn game went into injury time on Monday evening with the score at 3-1, we were facing the unlikely prospect of one player having a full set of Perfectos. I was praying for someone to score, ’cos I couldn’t face the prospect of Statistical Norm regularly reminding me of how he planned this coup for the foreseeable future. Thankfully, Carlos Tevez rescued me from that possibility, and also cheered up Gemini49, Seba77 and Wildman1882 who had all forecast the 4-1.

With only one of the favourites winning, it was a bad week for Bankers. More than a hundred players lost their opportunity with postponed games, and double that number by backing the big red teams. Along with the 56 who saw Man. City as the clear choice, we had two players who did it the hard way: Liverpool fan Marios backed Everton to draw with Arsenal, while Man. Utd supporter Bigboyslittleboy backed Birmingham to take a point from his own team. Nice work, chaps!

Top players of Round 21

With Norm denied his triple-Perfecto, he at least has the consolation of being the only player with two perfectos and all three correct results, but having done it without the benefit of a Banker, his 13 pts isn’t enough for a podium place, and he’s left standing on the wrong side of the velvet rope along with follow 13ers Mrs. Giant, Marios, 4inarow, Spartakus, and Gilberto’s Goldmine as this week’s top three are ushered into the VIP area.

Player	Team	League	Score	Results	P5s
Teckert	Everton	Public 9	14	2	1
Akkers	Wolver	Public 13	14	2	1
Len	Millwall	Archer	14	2	1

A few other points of note:

Once the updates were finalised after the last Round 21 game (Stoke/Fulham) there were two further Tenners to add to the Great Wall Of Fame, albeit with asterisks denoting 10 results in a round of 11 games. Nevertheless, I invite you to applaud Numba1 (England, Newcastle & Public League 1) and Ssakka (Cyprus, Liverpool & Cyprus Liverpool GS).

FA Cup Round 3: due to two further postponements, the final games won’t take place until Tues. 19^th, always assuming the grounds are fit by then. With a bit of luck, we’ll be saluting our winner next week.

In the last-man-standing Banker competition, we’re down to five players with one life left: Bryal51, CockneyBlueJew, GameTipper, Nick1 and Magic Mike. Careful this weekend boys….

Global leaders review

I’ve been comparing the leaderboard now as against this time last season. It’s clear that that standard has improved in the last 12 months. Current leader Wakodarena is averaging 20.45 pts (excluding Banker) per round, whereas Antomeno a year ago was scoring 18.34. The same situation applies all the way down the leaderboard, with current #20 Magic Mike scoring 18.35 vs. 16.74 for his opposite number last season.

A few other notables:

Top Results Water4fire, Wenger’s Wonderkids. 230 = 5.75 per round

Top Goals Wakodarena. 152 = 7.6 per round

Top Perfectos Big Phil’s B&WA. 33 = 1.65 per round

A new name – Sebastian – has crept into the Top 20 over the New Year, along with three old ones. I’ve already mentioned Mike, but 2008-09 champion Gilberto’s Goldmine and Big Phil’s B&WA are also charging up the rankings. They are at #14 and #=16 respectively, having collected 116 and 107 pts in the last five rounds, during which time the average was 80 pts.

As useful as an ashtray on a motorbike

This week, I was reading an excellent article about expensive imports who had failed to live up to expectations in the Premier League. Can you identify the striker who hasn’t scored a single Prem goal this season, and earns 15,000 pounds a week more than Cesc Fabregas? I’ll give you some extra help by mentioning that at seven million pounds, he was his club’s record signing. Still no wiser? Go to the article – it’s essential reading

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/jan/10/portsmouth-wages-waste-of-money

Just as interesting are some of the instant responses from the readers – ain’t the internet wonderful!

Now, from one extreme to the other. Can you imagine a situation where footballers wages were fixed at the same level as those of taxi drivers, assembly line workers and similar manual trades? Impossible? No, it’s a fact. I’ll bring you the story next week.

The Lions Den

Many years before the Russian population clubbed together to buy Chelsea a team capable of going 84 games unbeaten at home, another group (who would be proud to be identified as proletariat) achieved something almost as impressive, and without spending hundreds of millions of anyone’s money.

In the mid-1960s, with a little help from their team, the fans of Millwall FC – nickname, the Lions – turned their home, the appropriately named Den, into the most intimidating ground in Britain. This did not involve a philosophical change in their outlook. The club's history was dotted with incidents involving spectator trouble, which led to the Den being closed in 1920, 1934 and 1950 after crowd disturbances, and in 1947 when a spectator threatened the referee. As a visiting fan myself in the ’60s, I can verify that it was a thoroughly unpleasant place to follow your team.

Located in the heart of South London’s docklands, the stadium itself was an ugly grey concrete-and-barbed-wire affair that was described in one guidebook as ‘a trap’. According to a Millwall player, it resembled a derelict factory. Even the address, Cold Blow Lane, was unwelcoming. As for the facilities, “The away team dressing room was a dungeon, no light, no window” remarked a visiting player. If that dark and draughty place was hostile, the wave of antipathy from the crowd once the opposition ran onto the bumpy pitch was worse. Even a small Den crowd radiated sustained noise and aggression. They were resolutely working-class, hated everyone from outside their own district and were not averse to violence against visitors when the opportunity arose. It was around this time the Millwall legend of ‘No-one likes us, we don’t care’ was born.

Did the crowd take it’s cue from the team’s defence, or vice versa? Kitchener, Gilchrist, Snowdon, all archetypal hardmen, but they were eclipsed by Harry Cripps….he even sounded like a gangster. Harry was the team’s totem and the fans hero. Not even his admirers would call him skilful, but for thunderous commitment and warlike courage, he had few equals. His uncompromising approach fired up the fans, and they in turn incited the team, which was not without skill. In goal they had Alex Stepney who was later to win the European Cup with Man. Utd. In midfield, the creative spark was supplied by Irish international Eamon Dunphy, who went on to become a broadcaster, author of one of the most admired football autobiographies (‘Only a game?’) and the writer of Roy Keane’s biography. The goals came principally from old-pro striker Len Julians and Hugh Curran.

Millwall began the 1964-5 season in Division 4, having just been relegated, but under the new management of Billy Gray, they forged a team ethic based on hard work and organisation. In their opening home game on August 24^th, they fell behind 2-0 but recovered to draw 2-2 with Torquay. No-one realised at the time, but this was to be the start of a remarkable run. They remained unbeaten at home for the rest of the season, and secured promotion by finishing in second place.

The following season, they continued where they had left off. The Den, with growing crowds, remained a fortress and this enabled Millwall to stay among the leaders. Crowd trouble was never far away though. A hand-grenade, later found to be harmless, was thrown onto the pitch at Oxford by a Millwall fan. A player picked it up, looked at it, and threw it in the back of the net, whereupon the game continued. Nowadays, that would see the ground evacuated and the match called off! A pitch invasion at QPR and smoke bombs thrown during a game with Brentford at The Den added to the ugly reputation of Millwall’s fans. All the while though, visiting teams came and went from The Den without a win, and the season’s final tally from 23 home games was W19 D4 L0….and another promotion.

Division 2 in 1966-67 was an altogether tougher proposition, but it was not until their 14^th home game, against Plymouth that the unthinkable happened. Millwall lost at home, after a Football League record 59 games, beaten 2-1 by unfancied Plymouth. As the visitors coach left The Den, Millwall fans lined the road – not to applaud, but to pelt it with stones and bottles. I remember the day well, as it was the lead item on the day’s sports headlines. The date? Jan. 14^th, 1967, 43 years ago this weekend.

Viewed from 2010, Millwall’s achievement looks all the more remarkable, given that the team was ‘only’ a bunch of average, if determined players. Has a crowd ever been so valuable to a team, before or since? I doubt it. I wonder what would be the reaction of today’s authorities to Millwall-1960s-type fan behaviour? Nowadays, at their New Den stadium, things are quieter, but there’s still an undercurrent of violence which emerges when old foes like Leeds come visiting.

It took the all-conquering Liverpool team of the late 1970s to surpass the Lions record with a 63-game undefeated run before Chelsea assumed the mantle in 2008. I expect them to retain it for my lifetime, and I’m planning on being here for a good many more years.

Look after yourselves, pals, until next week.

Prof. Statto