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A Bunch of Fives So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.  He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style. Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics. ====================================== Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives. Previous analysis The Gunners run out of ammunition The Gunners outgunned I was interested to see the division of your predictions on the Arsenal – Man. Utd. clash: Home 50%, Draw 26.7%, Away 23.3%. Average goals home 1.47, Away 1.29. Hmmm…. Watching the game, I was reminded of Chelsea’s visit to the Emirates in November. Then as on Sunday, Arsenal were second by a distance, out-fought and out-thought. Maybe it was a bad day at the office, but unless they bounce back and produce a much better show next weekend at Stamford Bridge, there will be a whole bunch of people besides me saying ‘Two horse race’. The marathon men This season, there are four weeks like this when we get a double dose of Premiership games. For three teams – Chelsea, Portsmouth and Fulham – there were three games in eight days. Aside from the League we had a cracking League Cup Semifinal between the Manchester teams, and there were three involved in FA Cup replays. In the course of nine days, we’ve only had one (Thurs. Jan. 28th) when there wasn’t a Prem team in action. This is the time when players demonstrate their fitness and endurance – or lack of it. I have a table that has every team’s games divided into 15-minute chunks: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45 etc. showing the goals scored and conceded in each phase. The fittest (and most motivated) teams are apparent by their ability to increase the pressure in the crucial 76-90 minute period. Who are the best in this regard? So far, they are Man. Utd, Chelsea and Tottenham, in that order. For these three, that last quarter hour is their most productive time of the game, when they score most and concede least. We’ll be taking a closer look at that table soon. Dashboard data When you logged in this week, you may have been surprised to find your new Dashboard. The idea is to give you an instant update as to your recent performances in comparison with the Tipsters, alert you to the upcoming rounds and their closing dates, and let you know about the recent columns from Mike, Damon and yours truly. This is all served up by top ScoreFive boffin Doc Richard. Now all we need him to add is next weekend’s scores…. Maybe that’s asking a bit much. Anyhow, I think it’s a handy addition. Thanks, Doc! Weekly highlights Pt. 1. Midweek Round 23 The midweek Round 23 gave you a Banker quandary. The champions weren’t playing, Chelsea were at home to 15-games-unbeaten Birmingham, and Arsenal were away at high-riding Aston Villa, while the other four games brought together teams only a few places apart in the table. That left the depleted and misfiring Liverpool away at struggling Wolves. Your opinions were so divided that 19 of the possible 24 outcomes (eight matches, win-lose-draw) had at least one Banker vote. I don’t keep records of these things, but it was extreme to say the least. Chelsea attracted most votes, followed by….Bolton. Yes, strange isn’t it? Why Bolton? Because they were the No. 1 game. Liverpool and Everton soaked up most of the rest, and as we know, Liverpool were the unlucky one of those four. There were two predictions that stood out among the Bankers. Bigboyslittleboy decided that Villa – Arsenal would be a draw. Excellent! He banked 7 pts for the 0 – 0…having predicted 4 – 4. To have each team’s score wrong by four goals and still collect seven points by barely credible. Less bizarre, but equally daring, was Oluwole, who Banked on Wolves to hold Liverpool. The essential details first: basic points were 17.14, and with Banker 20.24. Correct results average was 59.2% and Perfect 5s 16.89%, the third highest of the season. Correct Bankers were 75.6% Overall, this was an unremarkable round, with six of the eight games following the general consensus. The exceptions were at Aston Villa, where only 37% of players said ‘Draw’, and the aforementioned upset for Liverpool and the 90% of players who were relying on them to win at Wolves. Unique in forecasting the 0 – 0 was Jack Frost, which makes this the Top Tip of the Round. Top Players of Round 23 No runaway leaders in this round – we had more than 20 players separated by two points.
Weekly highlights Pt. 2 Weekend Round 24 To be precise, Round 24 was a five-day affair, including as it did a Monday night game and two midweek rearranged postponements. This did at least provide me with a couple of days extra entertainment as I watched the week’s leaders inching their way towards the Tenners Club. Monday night’s Sunderland – Stoke boredraw opened the door for Andyinholland to join as he completed his set of 10 results, and with a record-equalling single week score of 42 pts. Tuesday’s Hull – Chelsea coupon-busting draw dashed Andy’s hopes of being our first 11-game winner or new record setter, but it did allow several others to move up to nine wins. Going into Wednesday night’s Fulham – Portsmouth game, I know of Scanman, Hoodster, Josep and our old friend Katona777 who will become Tenners if it’s a draw, then there’s Joshwah and PeterPoulsen who will be joining the elite if it’s a Fulham win. There may be more contenders – Doc Richard has sent the ScoreFives elves to scour the length and breadth of the Predictions Register. I’ll confirm the outcome next week. Here are the details for the first 11 matches: basic points 20.24, (with Banker 24.15). Correct results 52.3%, Perfectos 13.32% - well above average – and correct Bankers 79.6%. Where were the points won? At Birmingham, Liverpool and Man. City especially, where the No. 1 forecast was also the result in all cases. With the majority backing the victorious away teams at Burnley, Wigan and Fulham, there were points aplenty from those games too. With the exception of Birmingham’s draw, the other four proved hard to locate for the majority of you. Banker-wise, it was a week where the disappointments were confined to the Big Four. Match No. 1 on the Predictions page continues to catch out the unwary. This week it happened to be the Arsenal – Man. Utd clash, and there were twice as many losers as winners, while on Tuesday night, all who backed Chelsea at Hull came unstuck. You can bet that the 10 pts that bc2009 collected by backing his own B. C. – Birmingham City – to finish 1-1 were highly prized. There wasn’t a single 1-3 forecast for the big game at the Emirates, but we had four players who fingered that unlikely 1-1 at Hull on Tuesday night. I reckon that makes Hawkeye, Dwayne, MKlosers and Statistical Norm our eagle-eyes of the week. Typical of Norm to go for the unlikely. I assure you folks, it doesn’t succeed often, which is why you’ll find Norm at somewhere around #250 on the Global Ladder: he’s no Magic Mike. Top players of Round 24 This is the first time our VIP list has had an entry qualification of 40, but with 12 games, big scores are to be expected.
What’s so great about 1 – 1 ? Now, I have a question for you. Why do you ScoreFivers like this scoreline so much? And what have you got against 0 – 0? Last season, it was, along with 1- 0 the most frequent result, accounting for 11.05% of all results. But it appeared in only 2.55% of your predictions. Your 2 – 2 forecasts are also below the level of 2 – 2 results, while 1 – 1 draws made up 18.94% of your predictions, though they were only 8.94% of results. I was reminded of this on Monday while analysing the weekend’s results. After removing the four games (at Burnley, Liverpool, Man. City and Wigan) where we had a majority of predictions for one team or the other, we had six games with a high proportion of draws forecast. Here’s what you said:
Now, compare that with the actual 2009-10 results ratio for all draws: 25% 43% 25% 7% Basically, this tells us that when you decide a game is going to be a draw, you’re predicting 1 – 1s far too often and not enough of the other two likely possibilities. (Trying to locate 3- 3s is probably just a bit too tough). The actual number of draws this season is 0 – 0 = 15, 1 – 1 = 26, 2 –2 = 15 and 3 – 3 = 4. Home-Away-Draw / goals per game update While we’re on the subject of result comparisons, let’s have a look at Home-Draw-Away status. Goals per game
Goals-per-game have been gradually reducing since the end of November, and the Draws ratio has been steadily creeping up. As there were only four in the first six rounds this season, the level in Rounds 7-24 is actually 32% What they said, and what they meant At the weekend, half the sports pages of the UK’s national tabloids were taken up with speculation, innuendo and moralising concerning John Terry’s latest off-field antics. Others, the broadsheets as they are known, managed to stay aloof from all this. The chief among these is the Sunday Times, but their Sports section front page featured a huge picture of the Chelsea captain heading his team’s winner at Burnley. The Headline? Terry Scores Again! Until next week, pals, look after yourselves Prof. Statto STOP PRESS Wednesday’s result, Fulham 1 – 0 Portsmouth, means several new additions to the Wall Of Fame First player to win 11 games in one Round: Andyinholland Other new members of the Tenners Club: Joshwah, PeterPoulsen New record points total for a round: 44 Andyinholland Well done, all. |
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