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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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2008/09 Premier League Scenesetter

 

Good Day, all,

There’s not long to go until another season of Premiership thrills and spills is under way – I’m looking forward to it!

I must confess, I’m not expecting anything revolutionary – we know who the title contenders will be and we’ve a fair idea who will be battling relegation, but there are always enough upsets to keep the experts looking embarrassed, so my first nugget of information as you prepare to submit your Score Five predictions for Week 1, is that 20% of English Premier League games are won by the underdog. Only 53% are won by the favourites, with the other 27% drawn. If you always go for the obvious result, you’ll discover that half the time, it’s not obvious!

In case you’re thinking that you can at least rely on the Big Boys to get you lots of easy Correct Result points by simply winning their home games, I’ll just remind you that Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool between them failed to win a third of their home games last season – that’s 19 of their combined 57.

So, if these titans can’t be trusted to see off the likes of Wigan and Birmingham (who both picked up points twice on visits to the Big Four last season), what chance have we got of getting the scores right each week? It won’t be easy, but here are a few things that you would do well to bear in mind for the season:

- 2-1 and 1-1 are the most frequent EPL scores
- Away teams are more likely to score 0 than 2 or above.
- Home teams score 2 and above more often than 1 and below

Last season, EPL results were divided:
Home wins 46 %  
Draws 26 %  
Away wins 27 %  

Average goals per match 2.64  
Average goals per match by the Home team 1.53  
Average goals per match by the Away team 1.11  

45% of games had over 2.5 goals
55% of games had fewer than 2.5 goals

That’s a lot of numbers and percentages, but they conceal the heroics and blunders that make the game so exciting – well, unless it’s Middlesbrough v Bolton on a wet Sunday in January, say. As the big kick-off approaches, we can look forward to seeing more than 60 new signings, and probably a hundred by the time the Transfer Window closes. There’s the Scolari revolution at Chelsea, and we have the mysteries of Hull, Stoke and West Bromwich to unravel. It promises to be a very interesting season.

I’ll be back in the week beginning August 9th with some thoughts related to the opening weekend’s games, but if you’re looking for score predictions, Magic Mike’s High Fives column is the place to go. All the promoted teams will start as underdogs: could the Albion surprise Arsenal? Kevin Keegan would love it – just love it! – if Newcastle could get a result at Old Trafford. And the great thing is, You Never Know….

Regards,
Prof. Statto