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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 9.... Week 8.... Week 7.... Week 6.... Week 5

Four managers, nine strikers and two heads

Hello again pals,

Ten games into the season, and four Prem teams already have new managers. The change hasn’t transformed Newcastle and West Ham so far. I’ll reserve judgment on Spurs for a few weeks. They may have beaten Bolton, but as the City financiers say, “Even dead cats can bounce”. Most of the football scribes are saying Spurs and Newcastle will climb out of the drop zone before long. With Chairmen fearful of their clubs missing next season’s Gravy Train, you can be sure a couple more managers will soon be under increased pressure. Pulis, Mowbray, Megson perhaps?

Seven weeks ago when the new owners came in at Man. City, I predicted that we’d see more goals from them. In the six games since, they’ve bagged 15 and are now the Prem’s top scorers.
God knows how many they’ll get once all their nine strikers are fit. Last season’s No. 1 Benjani hasn’t kicked a ball yet. The fragile (or cursed) Bojinov is out for another six months due to doing something overly-strenuous like running a bath, and Vassell has been sidelined since August.

Apart from the crocks, they also have some who play, including two promising youngsters, Daniel Sturridge and Ched Evans who have been touted as ‘our future strikers’: I wonder if anyone has mentioned this to Robinho and Jo? Will the UAE moneybags be able to resist Ronaldo’s “Come and get me” plea in January? Then of course, there’s Roque Santa Cruz dropping hints he’ll be at Eastlands as soon as the Transfer Window opens. What Caicedo and Castillo make of all this is anyone’s guess. The City first team squad numbers currently go up to 57. With more arriving in January, Sparky’s going to need a bigger dressing room and longer subs bench…

The Battle of the Experts
In the search for the magical all-10-scores-right, 50-pt week, what can we learn from the Experts? Our own Magic Mike has a pretty good record, and many of you have benefitted from his tips. The BBC Football website has Lawro, the former Liverpool defender, who is an intelligent chap – for an ex-footballer. In return for the $510,000 they pay him – no, just a minute, let’s check the exchange rate… as I was saying, in return for the $395,000 they pay him – well, he does a bit of commentating too - Lawro has delivered 39 correct results from 89 games. That’s a 44% success rate, OK, but not brilliant. In exchange for the $0 he costs you, Magic has served up 44 correct results, = 49% success. Better! Magic Mike is also ahead on Perfect 5’s, 10 v 9.

But can we pool their expertise? Two heads are better than one, as the proverb goes, unless the heads are on something hideous you encounter via Playstation in the dungeons of Klarg, Ruler Of The Universe. Last weekend, I matched up their predictions. They agreed on six results, of which they got three right: Man. City to tonk Stoke, Tottenham to see off Bolton, and Arsenal to win at West Ham. The ones they got wrong? Blackburn didn’t beat ’Boro, Portsmouth didn’t beat Fulham, and Sunderland didn’t draw with Newcastle.

Here’s a question I can’t answer, but you can: how many of their seven agreed results for the midweek games did they get right? See below what they were saying on Tuesday ahead of the first kick-off. Note that I’ve added a third column showing what the snakes of the betting world expect to happen.
 

 

Fixture	Magic	Lawro	Snakeheads
Newcastle Vs West Brom	1 - 0	2 - 0	Newcastle
Arsenal Vs Totenham	3 - 0	2 - 1	Arsenal
Aston Villa Vs Blackburn	2 - 0	2 - 0	Aston Villa
Bolton Vs Everton	0 - 1	0 - 2	Bolton
Fulham Vs Wigan Athletic	0 - 2	2 - 0	Fulham
Hull City Vs Chelsea	0 - 2	0 - 2	Chelsea
Liverpool Vs Portsmouth	1 - 1	2 - 0	Liverpool
Man Utd Vs West Ham	3 - 0	3 - 0	Man Utd
Middlesborough Vs Man City	1 - 1	1 - 2	Middlesborough
Stoke City Vs Sunderland	0 - 2	0 - 2	Stoke

 

Not only do our two experts agree on seven results (games highlighted), they also agree on four (highlighted) scores! Lawro’s 3-0 assessment for Man U v West Ham is unusual, as he very rarely predicts a score above 2. Six of their shared opinions are confirmed by the betting reptiles, who disagree only regarding Stoke v Sunderland. In the Bet column, I’ve highlighted the six teams that are odds-on favourites… interesting to see that Mike doesn’t expect Liverpool to win at home. There’s one fixture all three have a different opinion on – Middlesbrough v Man City.

If our esteemed pundits did well out of that lot, you might want to check what they are advising for the weekend’s fixtures – unless, like Varora and Marcockh, you’re one of that select few who already have a 50% + prediction success rate. Maybe they could give us their tips? Which reminds me, let’s have a look at the