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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 10.... Week 9.... Week 8.... Week 7.... Week 6.... Week 5

Back to the drawing board...

Hello again all,

Now, where were we? Oh yes, last time, we were trying to gain some advantage from pooling the expertise of Magic Mike, the BBC’s Lawro, and throwing in the opinion of the betting Pro’s for good measure. Of the seven midweek predictions Mike & Lawro agreed, five proved correct, and they managed scores of 16 (five results) and 22 (six results) respectively. The Pro’s? Eight results. For the weekend, Mike and Lawro again shared an opinion on seven games. They got off to a flying start with results from the first three matches, but after that it all went downhill, and both hit the buffers big time, finishing with season-low 11s. Even Count Zloli and Statistical Norm did better! As for the Pro’s, they were again the best of our three options with 6 results. If you’re inclined to follow their lead this weekend, be aware that they rarely, if ever, have the Draw as best option. Where do we turn for advice now? Read on….

Top Players
With two full Prem programmes and a heap of high-scoring games with unlikely results, it was a strange week. Anyone who amassed 20 pts in midweek would have been happy. Anyone who managed it at the weekend was almost unique! So, a quick gallop through the midweek hot-shots: Haiching, 21 pts, Lawro, mdhere4u & Athlone Boys with 22, Peter & LadyInRed with 23, nick1 with 24. Way ahead of the pack was Lano23, of the Global ’Pool fans league, with a formidable 32, which included four perfect fives and eight results. The two he missed? Same as everyone else – the Arsenal/Spurs draw and Stoke’s defeat of Sunderland. Extra kudos to Soniyasa, who had the nerve to predict a 3-4 scoreline for that game at the Emirates. Close, but no cigar!

With all the bottom four teams winning at the weekend, most of you found your predictions derailed. The average score was 12-13 pts. Only bonzone, Something Athletic and those Athlone Boys (again!) hit the 20 pts mark. The Irishmen have compiled a superb 22-25-22-18 sequence in the past month to surge to the top of the Global Leaderboard, scooping the second monthly prize en route. Outstanding work, guys! Now, can we have your predictions for the weekend? Finally, a mention for the only person to foresee that Chelsea would pulverize Sunderland 5-0 – numba1, who must have enjoyed that result all the more, being a Newcastle supporter.

A dirty story
The boffins at OPTA have just released one of their more curious pieces of research. It concerns the evolution of tackling in the Prem. I suppose we should more correctly call it devolution, as it’s going backwards. Here are the basic facts: 

	2003/04	2008/09
Tackles per Game	57.58	44.30
Tackles per foul	2.04	1.66
Yellow per foul	0.10	0.12

Not only is tackling in decline, but those who are rash enough to try and take the ball from an opponent (instead of merely waiting for a misplaced pass) are now more likely to be disciplined for it. At present, the formula seems to be eight tackles gets you a yellow card. Your average tough-tackling midfielder, say a Mascherano or Reo-Coker, who would expect to make at least five tackles per game, can now expect to concede three fouls in the process.

If the decrease in tackles continues at the present rate, the final tackle in Prem history will take place sometime in the 2020/21 season, probably at the Emirates Stadium, when an old French guy will leap from his seat in the stands and scream at the ref to get his book out after a Leeds ‘hardman’ gets a bit near Martin Keown Jr. The stewards will of course move in and restrain Monsieur Wenger (for it is he) and remind him that unseemly displays of emotion, such as shouting, singing and chanting, are no longer allowed at football matches.

If old man Wenger wonders what the game has come to, he will only have himself to blame, as he is leading the campaign to remove tackling from the English game. Well, to be fair, he will also be able to blame the influx of continentals in the ’90s who established the modern faker’s assortment of ref-deluding tricks: the Dive, the Triple Roll and the Hit-By-Sniper-Fall.

Excuse me a moment while I saddle my hobby horse….right, away we go! There was a time – it was called the ’60s - when English clubs (and fans) only encountered these examples of downright cheating in European games against Italian sides and World Cups against South American nations. At that time, I was a young Statto still learning what percentages were, and Dad Statto would take me to games where we saw the likes of Dave Mackay (Spurs), Ron Harris (Chelsea) and Norman Hunter (Leeds) piling into opponents in what was described at the time as a ‘robust’ manner. If Wenger had been around, he’d have had a heart attack every week!

I remember seeing Anfield enforcer Tommy Smith having a set-to with Leeds mighty midget Billy Bremner. Feet and fists were involved, but neither player rolled around on the floor, and I don’t think they were even booked. The teams didn’t surround the ref, and the managers didn’t fulminate for dramatic effect on the touchline. Then the game went on. As for the artists of the day who were the main targets of these assassins, they accepted it as part of the game. George Best finished most matches with a fine array of bruises, but Matt Busby didn’t whine about it. Next time you hear of a Wenger outburst after his fancy-dans have been done over by a Stoke, Bolton or Hull, make sure you see the highlights. In years to come, you’ll be able to tell the kids about the old days, when tackling was allowed.

He opened his mouth and put his foot in it
I always get a chuckle out of those compilations of idiotic comments from people in the football world. Here are some crackers from a new collection:

“Fourth spot is what we’re aiming for. We don’t want to be second best” - Phil Neville.

“He’s the kind of player you only miss when he’s not playing” - Graham Taylor.

“I’ll bet there are eight teams in the last sixteen who won’t win the competition” - Andy Gray.

“Chelsea fans will have switched off their televisions and be listening to the radio with their hands over their ears biting their nails” - BBC Radio commentator Alan Green.

Have a good weekend all,

Prof. Statto