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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 13.... Week 11 - 12.... Week 10.... Week 9.... Week 8.... Week 7

A Song for Europe

Hello again, pals,

There’s a general agreement that this is turning into one of the more exciting Prem seasons. I’m not yet one of those saying it’s a 14-way relegation battle, but everyone below 6th place is aware that three quick losses could find them looking up at all the rest. This weekend, Spurs in 19th spot could go 12th if they win and other results go their way. We’re seeing a few more goals, more teams going for away wins, a couple of the Big Four are wobbling, and there’s a few teams in unfamiliar parts of the table to spice things up. Add it all together, and you get interesting, at least.

We’re not the only ones who are content. Some of those same things are happening in Spain. They do have a couple of sides at the bottom in danger of being cast adrift, but goals are up (average 2.83 per game, vs the Prem’s 2.72) and draws are down. Real Madrid are only in 4th place and a couple of the promoted sides are shaking up the established teams.

In Germany, the fans are ecstatic. The millions of Bayern Munich-haters are happy to see them limited to 3rd place behind Leverkusen and newly-promoted Hoffenheim, whose journeymen, youngsters and ex-misfits are scoring bags of goals and playing all-out attacking football. The Bundesliga can boast 3.04 goals per game, but Hoffenheim supporters are seeing four!

What about Europe’s other Big League? Serie A has lost some of it’s lustre: they can only manage 2.38 goals per game. You can’t even ring your favourite ref any more to arrange a couple extra. Crowds are down, and it’s Milan vs. Milan at the top again. Yawn.

Germany and Spain also have the advantage of admission prices that are only a fraction of the Prem’s. Still, I’m sure all Chelsea fans are happy to pay their 30+ pounds ticket price in the knowledge that they are helping to line the pockets of Ashley Cole. Ditto West Ham fans and their odious Welsh toad, and so on.

From here, it looks like a case of Arrivederci Roma, Viva Espana, but Deutschland Uber Alles.

Most frequent EPL scores
With a third of the season gone (129 matches), it’s time we had an update on the distribution of results. As we all know, away wins are up, so it’s no surprise to see the percentage of 1-2s up from 5 to 10%, while 1-1s are down by a similar degree. The surprise to me was the number of big Away scores – 18 of 3 goals or more – almost as many as the Home teams, who have 20.

Distribution of scores, 2008-09 season up to Nov. 18.

Score	No. of games	%age of total
2 - 1	19	14.7%
1 - 2	13	10.0%
1 - 1	11	8.52%
2 - 0	10	7.75%
1 - 0	9	6.97%
1 – 0	9	6.97%
0 – 0	9	6.97%
0 - 2	7	5.42%
2 – 2	6	4.65%
0 - 3	5	3.87%
1 – 3	4	3.10%
3 – 2	4	3.10%
3 – 0	4	3.10%
2 – 3	3	2.32%
3 – 1	3	2.32%
0 – 4	2	1.55%
4 - 0	2	1.55%
4 – 4	1	0.77%
4 – 3	1	0.77%
4 – 2	1	0.77%
4 – 1	1	0.77%
Other	5	3.87%

 

If we translate each 0, 1, 2, 3 etc into the average number of times they occur Home and Away each week, this is what we get: 

	2007 - 08			2008 - 09
Score	Home	Away		Home	Away
0	2.35	3.21		2.64	2.87
1	3.37	3.74		2.87	3.33
2	2.18	1.84		2.95	2.40
3	1.05	0.50		0.85	1.01
4+	1.02	0.71		0.70	0.38

We can see that there are fewer high (= 3 or more) scores by Home teams (1.55 per week vs. 2.07 last season). but there are more (1.39 per week vs. 1.21 last season) by the Away teams. It’s not just the Big Four who are banging them in on the road – we’ve had a 5 from Wigan, 4s from Spurs and the Villa and 3s from six other teams including Hull twice! And once again, the figures demonstrate that two out of every three games have three goals or less, and neither side gets all three. Right, with that fresh in mind, let’s have a look at this weekend’s fixtures.

Strong historical precedents suggest all the Big Four are going to win. Man U have won at Villa Park for the last six seasons. Newcastle have lost on their last six visits to the Bridge; Fulham last managed a point at Anfield five seasons ago, and Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 league and Cup games at Man City. But if one were to screw up (surely not two?) which would it be? I’m no tipster, but I note that Arsenal are the only one of the Quality Quartet who aren’t odds-on with the Betting Reptiles. And they’ve got a few injuries. I’ll settle for them to win or lose by the odd goal in seven.

Top Players.
In a week when the average score plunged like a Detroit car-maker’s share price, a canny few took the opportunity to surge up the Global league ladder. CockneyBlueJew moved back into the Top 10 with 22pts. Bakkerman from AMNAS Div 2 compiled a worthy 23, NigelBall’s 24 included four Perfect 5’s, and Damo Shanks reached the No. 12 spot courtesy of his 25…he must be the 5th or 6th ’Pool fan in the top dozen! It was another spectacular week for Patrick Ho of the Hong Kong Team League: His 26 pts took him to Global No. 5, and he now has 21 Perfect 5’s. The only other player with 20 of them is Bertie, whose 27 pts makes him this week’s chien superieur. He’s been loitering in the upper echelons of the G.L. since Week 1. “The first sign of Quality is Consistency”, as Mr. Wenger observed this week, before going out to look for some.

A good weekend to you all, pals!

Prof. Statto