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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 14.... Week 13.... Week 11 - 12.... Week 10.... Week 9

Now this is what I call tight...

Hello again, All,

There has been much recent talk about this being the tightest ever Premier league campaign, where a team can move six places up or down the table on one result. However it ends, I can’t believe it will compare with the remarkable, ultra-congested season of 1937-38. Take a look:

Pos	Team	Pld	H Won	H Drawn	H Lost	H For	H Against	A Won	A Drawn	A Lost	A For	A Against	Points
1	Arsenal	42	15	4	2	52	16	6	6	9	25	28	52
2	Wolves	42	11	8	2	47	21	9	3	9	25	28	51
3	Preston	42	9	9	3	34	21	7	8	6	30	23	49
4	Charlton	42	14	5	2	43	14	2	9	10	22	37	46
5	Middlesborough	42	12	4	5	40	26	7	4	10	32	39	46
6	Brentford	42	10	6	5	44	27	8	3	10	25	32	45
7	Bolton	42	11	6	4	38	22	4	9	8	26	38	45
8	Sunderland	42	12	6	3	32	18	2	10	9	23	39	44
9	Leeds Utd	42	11	6	4	38	26	3	9	9	26	43	43
10	Chelsea	42	11	6	4	40	22	3	7	11	25	43	41
11	Liverpool	42	9	5	7	40	30	6	6	9	25	41	41
12	Blackpool	42	10	5	6	33	26	6	3	12	28	40	40
13	Derby County	42	10	5	6	43	36	5	5	11	24	51	40
14	Everton	42	11	5	5	54	34	5	2	14	25	41	39
15	Huddersfield	42	11	3	7	29	24	6	2	13	26	44	39
16	Leicester	42	9	6	6	31	26	5	5	11	23	49	39
17	Stoke	42	10	7	4	42	21	3	5	13	16	38	38
18	Birmingham	42	7	11	3	34	28	3	7	11	24	34	38
19	Portsmouth	42	11	6	4	41	22	2	6	13	21	46	38
20	Grimsby	42	11	5	5	29	23	2	7	12	22	45	38
21	Manchester City	42	12	2	7	49	33	2	6	13	31	44	36
22	West Bromwich	42	10	5	6	46	36	4	3	14	28	55	36

(table courtesy of the excellent rsssf.com site)

The eagle-eyed among you will already have noted a mere 16 point spread between the champions and the bottom team. This was of course, in the 2-pts-for-a-win era. No team has ever won the League with a lower points total than Arsenal’s 52. Now, here’s one of the strangest stats ever: can you see who the top scorers were? The answer’s at the bottom for any dodgy mathematicians. When you’ve found them, note also their goals against! - then consider that Sunderland, in eighth place, had a minus goal difference, 55-57.

I see two main differences between this table and today’s. Firstly, the Home/Away variance: every team then had a winning record and positive goal difference at Home, but only one (Preston) managed that feat Away. Secondly, every team conceded more than a goal a game. There’s a simple reason for this: in those days, teams played with five in attack, not two, so there were more goals per game. Maybe that’s why people talk about the Good Old Days.

Today, the 10 teams in the bottom half of the Prem are covered by a six-point spread. At the end of the 1937-38 season, the bottom 13 were divided by only five points! With just one week left, any of 11 teams could have been relegated. Amazing stuff.

The Gods send out a reminder
It doesn’t do to upset the Gods of Football up there on Mount Olympus. All they’ve heard for weeks from us statisticians is Goals Are Up, Away Wins Are Up, Draws Are Down. Last weekend, they decided to remind us that they are the ones who decide what’s going to happen. Instead of the usual 25-30 goals, they gave us 15, the lowest of the season. We were dealt four draws and allowed only two away wins. To add insult to injury, they threw a few extra spanners in the works to ensure that none of the Big 4 would manage a goal. For pure contrariness, they then gave the usually shot-shy Bolton (five goals in six away games) three in one match!

Top Players
No wonder there wasn’t a single ScoreFiver who managed 20 pts over the elongated weekend. Our own Magic Mike was above the week’s average, though he had only a dozen, while his BBC rival Lawro, with 7, was one of many in single figures. Another embarrassed professional was Peter Wilson, the tipster of Britain’s Sunday Times, who told his 1.5m readers that all the Big 4 were going to win, (and Middlesbrough, and Portsmouth). It would be unfair of me to name our unfortunate competitor with a mere 4 pts and no (none, nil, zero) Results, but that’s them over there in Sichuan province seeking the consolation of an extra helping of bamboo shoots.

Amidst all this woe, a couple of players managed to scrape together 16 pts - the ever-competitive Bertie and Mark Taylor. Going one better, Ivan1123 picked up something from every match – some feat! Jamie09 was another on 17 pts, as was Stuart from the Archer League, but it’s his mate Len who stands at the summit this week with 19 pts.

A few special mentions this week: kudos to all members of the Archer, Crossmark, Dublin Jack, Euromoney, Pearly and Look At The Sea leagues, who, along with the Meywin Posse, lead the way when it comes to getting their predictions in every week. Take a tip from them, pals, you can’t win it if you ain’t in it. Finally, Man. City fan Rob was unique in predicting Chelsea and Liverpool to draw at home. For an encore, he picked Villa/Man U and Portsmouth/Hull to draw. In fact, he picked everyone to draw, 1-1. If he’d gone for 10 0-0s, he’d have picked up 22 instead of 10 pts.

Winter entertainment
Around this time of year, Northern Hemisphere newspapers and magazines are publishing their guides to the best winter sports resorts, and where skiers can find the deepest snow etc. If your winter sport, like mine, is football, here are the (European) places where the onion bags have been fullest.
 

Country	Team	Games	For	Against	Goals per game
Holland	Heerenveen	12	25	28	4.42
Germany	SV Bremen	14	32	26	4.14
Austria	SV Saltzburg	19	51	27	4.10
Germany	Hoffenheim	14	37	20	4.07
Austria	SCR Altach	14	25	50	3.95
Spain	Sp. Gijon	12	20	27	3.92
Germany	Bayern Munich	14	33	21	3.86
Germany	Wolfsburg	14	32	22	3.86
Spain	Barcelona	12	37	9	3.83
Spain	Real Madrid	12	29	17	3.83
Holland	Sparta	12	17	29	3.83
Holland	Volendam	12	13	33	3.83

Next week, the places to avoid - clubs whose fans dream of seeing two whole goals in a game.

Good luck for the weekend, pals,

Prof. Statto

Answer to above poser:
The 1937-38 top scorers were Manchester City, in 21st place, with 80 goals. They conceded 77, thus they were relegated with a positive goal difference – the only time this has ever occurred.