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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

FA Cup Round 3.... Weeks 19 and 20.... Week 18.... Week 17.... Week 16.... Week 15

Matt, Nat and Ben, the Cup Shock Men

In the days preceding last weekend’s Cup games, several journalists observed bluntly that the increasing gap (or should it be chasm?) in wealth between the Premier League aristocrats and their lower division counterparts made Cup shocks less likely nowadays. If that’s true, someone should tell the players.

Fans who bemoan the influence of oligarch owners and sheikh shareholders were no doubt pleased to see Manchester City, the so-called ‘richest club in the world’, well beaten on their own ground by Nottingham Forest, nowadays a struggling Championship club. Forest never looked back once Nathan Tyson had given them a first-half lead. City weren’t the only ones surprised by this result – only three of you ScoreFivers dared to forecast it.

If Roman Abramovich wondered where Southend is, he’ll know after Chelsea make the trip to the Essex seaside town for their replay, having failed to see off the Shrimpers at Stamford Bridge. According to you ScoreFivers, this was the shock of the Third Round – only one player envisaged Chelsea scoring a single goal. A mere two went for the draw. A hundred-odd thought 4, 5, or 6 goals for the Drog & Co more likely. West Brom and Portsmouth also failed to make the most of home advantage against lower-league opposition, but quite a few of you foresaw those results.

Perhaps the biggest upset came at Torquay, where the local non-league club put out Championship side Blackpool, 60 places above them on the ladder. Matt Green was the Gulls goalscoring hero.

Last week, among the ingredients of a Cup Shock, I mentioned Bill, the substitute for Little Club who blasts a 30-yard rocket over the head of Big Club’s goalie to win the match. As if by magic, that very thing happened in the Hartlepool-Stoke game, with one key difference – it wasn’t Bill, it was Ben. Thus it was that Premier League Stoke were dumped out of the Cup by a third-tier team whose squad cost less than half of one Stoke substitute.

In the 28 ties that were played, 12 teams got a draw or better against opponents from higher up the league ladder. Of the 14 Premier League teams who met sides from lower divisions, only nine managed a win. I think we can agree the age of Cup surprises is not dead yet.

Phil Brown fails his History Test
I’d just sent the ScoreFive Supremo my column for your Boxing Day entertainment when I noticed the following news item among the Premier League pre-Christmas snippets:
Brown gives Hull players Christmas off
Hull City Manager Phil Brown says he trusts his players not to overindulge at Christmas and has given them Christmas day off in the hope his side will repay him.
“Hmm, that could be interesting” I thought. Lo and behold, I turned on the radio about half an hour into the Boxing Day games to hear the BBC reporter saying “….and Robinho makes it Man. City four, Hull nil”. Fifteen minutes later, a furious, nay incandescent Brown was giving his shamefaced players his half-time thoughts as they sat humiliatingly on the pitch, in front of the Hull supporters, who had travelled in their thousands anticipating a good performance from their Tigers. Clearly, Phil had forgotten the story of Boxing Day ’63 and similar defensive disasters from his youth. It’s likely none of his squad had ever heard them.

Elsewhere, managers with more experience of dealing with feckless wasters were less trusting. Sir Alex, Harry and Big Sam kept their squads under lock and key on Christmas Day and profited as they all stayed alert enough to deny their opponents a goal next day. Alex and Harry were players during those Merry ’60s Christmasses and Sam is wise enough to remember them.

The philosopher George Santayana said “Those who fail to learn the lesson of history are condemned to repeat it”. I’ll bet that Phil, having been so painfully reminded of this fact, will be less trusting next Christmas, wherever he may be. Personally, I’d be happier if all the managers trusted their teams like Phil. I preferred 1963’s 66 goals to 2008’s 25.

Top Cup Players
With four ties yet to be played, we’re still a week away from knowing who our first Cup prediction wizard is, but the Third Round weekend threw up some remarkable performances. It’s difficult enough to predict what the Prem teams will do week to week, but when you’re also confronted with 44 less well-known teams, including eight who aren’t even in the league, predicting correct results becomes doubly difficult.

Despite this, Gilberto’s Goldmine, the early leader of the pack, astutely identified 22 of the 28 results. Go Behind Seagulls, with 21, was the only other to break the 20-barrier. Johnno11 is in second place on our leaderboard, thanks mainly to a remarkable nine Perfect 5’s. A shade behind him with eight, is 128break. They, with 70 points and upward, are our current Big 4, but a couple of Perfect 5s in the postponed ties could see any of 10 players on 60+ pts displace them. Loitering with intent, we have samjgallagher in 5th place with 67 pts, followed by Ruthless, winner of ScoreFive’s Euro 2008 AMNAS league competition, who only turns up when there’s a Cup to be won, it seems.

As mentioned above, those Chelsea and Man. City results provided nul points for all bar a couple of you. Add to them the other four headline-grabbing results (at Hartlepool, Torquay, Portsmouth and West Brom), and we have six matches that left the average ScoreFiver pointless. However, we have in our midst some very unaverage players! While perusing your results, I noticed several players who qualify as Upset Predictors by virtue of finding more than one of those six results! Here are our Paragons of Prognosis:
    3 - Panagiotis
    2 - Go Behind Seagulls, samjgallagher, Ovi, Brownie, lfc1892, johnw

All the above also managed to compile above-average scores. There were other players who found some of the upsets, but a little further digging revealed that they had predicted lots of matches to be won by the underdogs. One player had only three Prem teams to beat their lowly opposition. Whilst he nailed Torquay and Hartlepool as winners, he finished with only 22 pts, so in the circumstances, Antonis, I think Pyrrhic victory is the apt metaphor for you and the half dozen others who took a similar romantic, if improbable view and thus occupy rungs in the Bottom 20 of the Cup Ladder. A call to Panagiotis for some advice may yet save your Cup run!

Those whose score is in the 50s or above can be satisfied with their Third Round efforts. This stage accounts for half the competition’s matches, so a good start is crucial. Remember – we don’t predict replay results, so to see who our Round Three winner is, check the FA Cup Leaderboard on or after Thurs. 15th when those four postponed ties have been played. Good luck, all!

What’s in a name?
It was in a Boxing Day game against Blackpool he made his home debut for Sheffield Wednesday. The 17-year old came on as a second-half substitute. He played well enough in a 1-1 draw without doing anything remarkable. A modest beginning, you might say. His name? Nathan Modest.

Also on that day, Exeter of League Two held runaway leaders Wycombe to a 1-1 draw. Their 57th minute equaliser came from a Scottish midfielder, who according to all the reports, ‘pounced’ to score. His name? Manny Panther.

The following day, Kilmarnock had a tough Scottish Premier League fixture away at Hibernian. Despite having their goalkeeper sent off, the 10 men of Killie fought bravely and managed a win, led by their 2-goal, never-say-die Australian forward. His name? Danny Invincible.

Where do they get these names? Invincible and Panther are terrific, inspirational even. Did Chelsea players and fans feel good just to see David Speedie on their teamsheet? Were they worried when Micky Hazard played? Graham Taylor used to boast that his Wolves had a Bull (300-goal Steve) upfront and a Wolf (John de, from Holland) at the back. Great football names, but I’ve found one that’s even more appropriate: Holland’s Roda JC Kerkrade have a defender called Mark de Man!!!

Not all players are so lucky. The ex-Forest striker Junior Agogo is clearly in the wrong job – he should be running kids discos. Southampton have a goalkeeper who ought to be a weatherman or ScoreFiver….Tommy Forecast.

If you know any other unusual football names, drop a line to the ScoreFive Forum. Maybe we can make up a full team!

By the way, strange names aren’t confined to players: in Scotland’s Highland League, Inverurie’s team was formed by the town’s railway workers. Football fans in Spain or South America who hear of them must wonder if this group of Scotsmen is insane. “Aye caramba, not only do they wear skirts, but they are called Inverurie Locos!”

Have a good weekend all!

Regards,
Prof. Statto