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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 27.... FA Cup Round 5.... Weeks 25.... Weeks 23/24.... FA Cup Round 4.... Week 22

Through the Fixture Labyrinth

Hello again, pals

Now, pay close attention; it’s all a bit complicated this week, as anyone who’s already done their Predictions will have discovered. First of all, it’s the Sixth round of the FA Cup, or the Quarter Finals, as some prefer to call it. Well, it is for three-quarters of the qualifiers. For another one eighth, it’s the Fifth Round: this one eighth is the winner of Arsenal v Burnley, which is actually a Fifth Round tie, and has been sneakily inserted among the Sixth Round Predictions to see if you’re awake. Drop the Score Five Supremo a line today, saying “You can’t fool me!” For the remaining one eighth, who go by the name of Hull City, it’s a day off, as they await the Arsenal/Burnley winner. It’s also a free day for all the Premier League clubs who have been knocked out of the Cup – except Sunderland and Spurs, who had a day off last Saturday, and are now making up for it. That’s why this fixture was tacked on the end of your midweek Round 28 Predictions.

There are still a couple of outstanding matches from previous Prem rounds: the older of these, Fulham v Blackburn, postponed from Round 21, will take place next Wednesday – that was the other extra game in your Round 28 Predictions. Any contract lawyers among you who enjoy small print and have read the Score Five rules will, of course, know that when any Prem game is postponed, your original prediction is cancelled and you need to re-forecast when it pops up again later. That will be April 18th for the one other postponement (Man. Utd v Portsmouth) to be resolved, as Man. Utd say they are quite busy with other stuff until then. They should get Mrs. Statto in for a few days, she’d not put up with unfinished jobs lying around that long.

So, five weekend matches, but three competitions, in a manner of speaking. When they’re all finished on Sunday, the Score Five elves will set about finding who won our FA Cup Fifth Round competition and updating the FA Cup table.

The small fry
As the business end of the Cup approached, we saw the smaller clubs gobbled up in the Fifth Round like small fry by deep sea predators. Coventry City were the only ones to avoid this fate, proving indigestible when confronted by Blackburn. They earned the right to a home tie against Chelsea via a stirring replay win. What chance of Chelsea being dumped for the second year in a row by a Championship also-ran? And are their North London rivals really at risk of the same fate?

For anyone who’s humming and hawing over their prediction for that delayed Fifth Round tie, here’s some information for those unfamiliar with Burnley. This down-at-heel former textile town in a Pennine valley was one of the founder-members of the Football League, and is the smallest place to have won a League title (1959-60). From a collection of has-beens, never-weres and young hopefuls, manager Owen Coyle has assembled a curious team capable of losing to relegation candidates one week and beating high-flyers the next. Currently lying seventh in the Championship, in this season’s Cups, the Clarets have faced five Premier League teams and beaten them all. The victims? Spurs, Arsenal, West Brom, Fulham and Chelsea! Even more surprisingly, the last three of those were away wins, with the victory at Chelsea (on penalties) the most outstanding. Something in the West London air must appeal to these dogged Cup-fighters – they’ve also beaten QPR home and away! Whatever is Coyle feeding his boys?

The only team to get the better of them overall was Spurs, in the League Cup semi-final. After running their hosts ragged for the first 45 minutes in the opener at White Hart Lane, Burnley dozed off in the second half and conceded two sloppy goals in losing 4-1. All but a few of their 6,000 travelling fans travelled back to the North expecting the return leg to be a disappointing formality. Somehow, it wasn’t! After 90 minutes, Spurs were amazed to find themselves 3-0 down, and level 4-4 on aggregate. As they prepared for the extra half hour, several befuddled Premier league stars looked at each other with expressions that clearly said “Don’t these guys know when they’re beaten?” Three minutes from the end of extra time, Spurs were going out on away goals until two late strikes saved their blushes.

I bet Arsene Wenger has seen re-runs of those games. With qualification for the Champions League in doubt and three seasons without any silverware, he needs the Cup more most of the other managers. I don’t think he’ll be giving many of his youngsters a run out on Sunday. But then again, Chelsea put out their best side, and it didn’t save them….

So, as Burnley’s minnows prepare to face the Arsenal shark again, manager Coyle is looking Arsene squarely in the eye and saying, Harry Callahan-style “So, punk, do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya?”

Weekend roundup
We had eight games with three surprise results, and as in December, Man. Utd, away on other Cup business, moved a step nearer to retaining their title as their closest challenger stalled. The cumulative home record of the Big Five received another couple of dents with only Chelsea able to scrape a win, thanks to a 90th-minute strike. At the bottom of the table, Middlesbrough and Blackburn gained ground on the pack above them with vital wins. Going into the midweek games, the six clubs in 14th to 19th positions were separated by only two points.

Saturday began well for most of you with an amazing 60% picking up Perfect 5’s from Everton’s 2-0 win. 80% of you were expecting Liverpool to win at the ’Boro, where nobody went for the 2-0 home win. In the circumstances, I think Magic Senior and manucfc10 deserve a pat on the back for going with 2-1. There weren’t many points collected from the game at the Emirates, except by Darren and Spartakus, who were aware that Arsenal have been playing in blinkers recently, while Fulham ‘park the bus’ most effectively in away games – this was their sixth 0-0 on their travels this season. Villa’s game with Stoke was an obvious 2-0 to 45% of you, and 87 minutes in, that was looking a good call. Even when James Beattie swung in a cross for Ryan Shawcross to make it 2-1 a minute later, 16% of you were on course for a Perfect 5, but Glenn Whelan’s equaliser at the death was cheered only by Stoke fans and Patrick Ho, the sole player who dared to say 2-2.

Top Players
At the top of the Global Leaderboard, the 500-barrier has been breached, and the lead has changed hands twice already this week. It really is tight, with one result separating Simoscy, Lano23, Gilberto’s Goldmine and Antomeno.

Despite the three weekend coupon-busters, a select few of you managed to cobble together 20 points or better – quite a feat! These are the players who would make even Mr. Scrooge envious:

	League	Supports	Points
Gilberto’s Goldmine	Arsenal GS	Arsenal	22 with 3 x Perfect 5’s
Huddo	Newcastle GS	Newcastle	21 ditto
Big Phil’s B&W A	Pearly	Chelsea	20 ditto
Nick 1	The Dublin Jack	Man Utd	20 with 2 x Perfect 5’s
Tommy Coyne	Public 1	Motherwell	20 ditto

“Some people are on the pitch….”
The Football Association Challenge Cup (to give it its full title), as we’re always told on Final Day, is the world’s oldest Cup competition. In 130 years, over 12,000 matches have been played. Only once in that time has a result been declared void, with the winning team ordered to replay the game. This oddity was a Sixth Round tie between Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest, 35 years ago this weekend. Magpie fans, you may prefer to skip to the next item while one of the less glorious episodes in your club’s history is raked over.

With Forest leading 1-3, the Newcastle centre back Pat Howard was sent off and thousands in the St. James Park crowd responded by invading the pitch. The sociologists among you can debate what led to such extreme behaviour, but it’s probably no coincidence that Britain was at the time in the midst of another acrimonious challenge to authority in the form of a national coalminers strike. The referee called the players off the pitch and after order had been restored (by police with dogs) the game restarted and Forest, visibly shaken, quickly conceded three goals to lose 4-3. A couple of days later, the FA then declared the game void, and that it should be replayed at the neutral venue of Goodison Park as a punishment to Newcastle. This second game was drawn 0-0.

Forest were shocked to then hear from the FA that the replay would not be at their own City Ground, but at Goodison again! There was no precedent for asking a team to play three games in the same round away from home except in old no-extra-time-or-penalties semifinals. Newcastle won the third game 1-0 with a Malcolm Macdonald goal, and went on to reach the 1974 Cup Final, where they were soundly beaten 3-0 by Liverpool, who were no doubt supported by every Forest fan, and the silent majority who had viewed the St. James pitch invasion as a sign of declining sportsmanship in football.

In our modern era of the Police Football Intelligence Unit, all-seater stadia, crowd control, CCTV monitors and a steward for (nearly) every fan, we’re unlikely to see an event like that again, which is, I suppose, progress. Somehow, it doesn’t feel like it though.

Incidentally, there was another major pitch invasion that season. I’ll bring you the story in April.

An unfortunate coincidence
Some instances of synchronicity are just plain unfathomable. There’s a volcano in South America that only erupts in years when a Pope is elected. Spurs fans may have missed out on this year’s League Cup, “but if, you know, yer ’istory”, as they sing at White Hart Lane, they’ll be looking forward to the FA Cup two years hence, as they have a (pun alert) good record When The Year Ends In 1, a tradition that dates back to their first win in 1901.

Last week I came across another weird coincidence. This season, Huddersfield Town have done the league double over their foes and neighbours Leeds Utd. for the first time since the Great Depression of 1929-30. I’m hoping there’s no repeat next year. If the Terriers only get West Yorkshire bragging rights when there’s a global economic crisis, I don’t think the world can afford it more than once a century. Let’s hope one or the other of them gets promoted or relegated in May, for all our sakes!

Till next week, pals, take care,

Regards,
Prof Statto