scorefive.com
  Player
Password
forgot password?




Technology Partner


Community Partners
 
 
  05-Feb-2012 17:26 GMT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Previous analysis

Week 28.... Week 27.... FA Cup Round 5.... Weeks 25.... Weeks 23/24.... FA Cup Round 4

Hello again, pals,

There are 101 Premier League games still to play, but most seasoned observers agree that a win for Man. Utd against Liverpool this Saturday will mean that the Premier League champions shield will be staying where it is. For all except die-hard Liverpool and Chelsea fans, the discussion is starting to shift elsewhere, e.g. where did I put my car keys, and why are all the world’s bees dying?

Only five games at most remain in the FA Cup, but we’re still 11 weeks away from knowing who the winners will be, though the odds on it being one of the Champions League qualifiers have shortened considerably. Lightning dutifully failed to strike twice, and Burnley’s excellent run in this season’s Cups came to an end at the Emirates on Sunday as Arsenal booked their place in the remaining Sixth Round tie. With no surprises at Coventry, Fulham or Everton, only Hull now stand in the way of a European contenders Cup monopoly and a North/South final.

Top Players - Cup
Score Five-wise, the 3-0 bad news for the Clarets was ideal for Torreblue whose Perfect Five enabled him to leapfrog the leaders and snatch the cobweb-covered Fifth Round prize, with 22 pts. Spare a thought for erstwhile leader Brooks: he forgot to get his predictions in on time, and thus excluded himself from the prize – it’s a warning to us all, pals. On the Cup leaderboard, more than half the Top 20 netted 12 points or over from the four games. It’s now hard to envisage a winner coming from outside the top half dozen players. “We can live with that” say leaders Johnno11 and 128break.

Top Players - League
Although there was only one match at the weekend, it was a busy week when we take into account the previous midweek’s action, which had a significant effect on the ScoreFive title race... Matters at the top of the leaderboard are hotting up!

A strong Tuesday night showing saw Guardian aficionado Lano23 edge ahead of Antomeno, our table-topper since December, who dropped to third place behind Gilberto’s Goldmine, another whose recent form has been remarkable. Twenty four hours later, the situation had changed again, with Simoscy joining Lano on 524, powered by 16 Wednesday-night points. When the Sunderland-Spurs score came in, Lano was back in front as the only one of the four who went for the 1-1 draw. Nick1 is loitering with intent in fifth, but there’s a yawning 15 point gap between him and a logjam around the 500-mark. Going into Wednesday night’s game, Go Behind Seagulls in 16th place could have risen as high as 7th if the Fulham/Blackburn result went their way.

It was a real ‘fill-yer-boots’ week, with plenty of Perfect 5’s. Anyone who didn’t end up with 20 pts has reason to feel a bit miffed. It’s a tough qualifying mark of 27 pts for entry into this week’s winners enclosure:

Player

League

Supports

 Pts

 Simoscy

Cyprus Liv S

Liverpool

29

Grant

Crossmark

 West Ham

28

Lano23

 Liv. G S

 Liverpool

28

Nobbystyle

 Public 1

Liverpool

28

Andeebuboy

 Archer

QPR

27

GoBehind Seagulls

AMNAS 1

Brighton

27

 

Going up, going down
Lano
and Gilberto were respectively 20 and 26 pts adrift of Antomeno after the Boxing Day games. This is one of the great things about Score Five – if you can string together a few good weeks, you can climb the table at a rate Tony Mowbray can only dream about. On the other hand, it’s a slippery slope if you lose the magic touch – or worse still, forget to make your predictions. Note some of those whose fortunes have changed since we were opening our Christmas presents:

Player

March 10th

December 26th

Kevin

 7th

=18th

Obi van Kenobi

8th

=14th

Damo Shanks

24th

 9th

*ArseneAboutFace

=10th

22nd

 *Katona777

15th

27th

*GoBehindSeagulls

16th

30th

*Andeebuboy

17th

64th

*Alcock

19th

 =25th

*Magic Mike Collier

=20th

37th

Cockney Blue Jew

28th

 12th

Brownie

32nd

 =14th

Patrick Ho

=45th

3rd

Michael

=57th

=18th

What contrasting fortunes for Patrick Ho and Andeebuboy, one down 42 places, the other up by 47! In addition to Andee, there are five other new arrivals (denoted by *) in the Top 20 since Dec 26. Another dozen players have been in and out again, with most still hovering on the fringes. At this moment, there are 10 players within a Perfect 5 of that elite group including Graeme D, Gareth, Fungus, Damo, Cockney BJ and Kojja: they’re all planning on getting back there soon.

It’s a welcome return to the upper echelons for our soothsayer Magic Mike Collier, who has shaken off his mid-season blues to get back among the leaders for the first time since October. In the battle of the tipsters, he has now opened up a 14 pt gap on his rival, the BBC’s Lawro. Mike’s score of 24 was good news for a host of players with lives in hand who forgot to get their predictions in by the Tuesday deadline. You know who you are, you lucky lot!

I notice that Mike is taking the current goal famine to heart: he predicted a statistically extreme 13 goals for those midweek games. This week, he’s again tending towards the low side with 16 goals. The season low, for those who are interested, is 15 in Round 14, Nov 22-24. Only a four-timer by Spurs dragged last week’s total up to 20, which continued the reduction in the average goals-per-game. That four, by the way, was only the second time a team has exceeded three in eight rounds since the turn of the year. In the first 20 rounds, we had 20 scores of four or more.

Not so home-sweet-home
Here’s something to consider – the shifting Home/Draw/Away win ratios that have accompanied the goal decline of recent months. Since November, the Home win percentage has sunk to its lowest level since 2000. Draws, on the other hand, at 33%, are at their highest for the same period.

 

Games

Home

Draw

 Away

Goals-per-game (H/A)

13 rounds Aug 16 – Nov 16

129

44.2%

20.9%

34.9%

2.73 (1.44 / 1.29)

 15 rounds Nov 22 – Mar 8

 149

 42.3%

32.9%

24.8%

 2.19 (1.28 / 0.92)

 

Obeying the Law Of Averages
I’m going to do a little experiment this week. Using the current Goals For/Against and Home/Away table below, I’m going to predict the weekend’s results, going exactly by the averages. Let’s take the big one, Man. Utd/Liverpool, as an example. Let’s see, take the average of Man U’s home score and Liverpool’s away conceded….2.30 + 0.85 = 3.15. Halve it = 1.58. Same thing for the away team, 1.64 + 0.38 = 2.02, halve it = 1.01. So, in round numbers, the Law Of Averages says it’ll be 2-1. I’ll let you know how it all works out.

Team

Home goals for

Home goals against

 

Away goals for

Away goals against

 

Total goals for

Total goals against

Arsenal

1.28

0.78 

 

1.64 

1.07 

 

1.46 

0.92 

Aston Villa

1.42

1.07 

 

1.57 

1.00 

 

1.50 

1.03 

Blackburn

1.07

1.50

 

1.15

1.69

 

1.11

1.59

Bolton

1.00

1.07 

 

1.14

1.78

 

1.07

1.42

Chelsea

1.64

0.57

 

1.78

0.57

 

1.71

0.57 

Everton

1.42 

1.14

 

1.14

0.85 

 

1.28

1.00

Fulham

1.61

0.76 

 

 0.21

0.92

 

 0.88 

 0.85

Hull City

1.07

2.07

 

1.35

1.50

 

1.21

1.78

Liverpool

1.57

0.57 

 

1.64

0.85

 

1.60

0.71

Man City

2.14

0.85

 

1.07

1.71

 

1.60

1.28

Man United

2.30

0.38 

 

1.28

0.50 

 

1.77 

0.44

Middlesborough

 0.85 

1.07 

 

 0.57

1.78 

 

0.71

1.42

Newcastle

1.42

1.57

 

1.00

1.64 

 

1.21

1.60 

Portsmouth

1.28

1.57 

 

0.84 

1.69

 

1.07

1.62

Stoke

1.21 

 0.92

 

0.71

 2.21

 

0.96

1.57 

Sunderland

1.14

1.14 

 

0.85

1.42

 

1.00

1.28

Tottenham

1.07 

0.64

 

1.28

1.71

 

1.17

1.17

WBA

1.35 

1.92

 

0.42

1.92

 

0.89

1.92

West Ham

1.35

1.21

 

1.07 

1.21 

 

1.21

1.21

Wigan

0.92 

0.85

 

1.00 

1.07

 

0.96

0.96

 

“You’ll never win anything with kids”
I doubt the BBC pundit Alan Hansen knows Aarau in Switzerland, but if he was to visit this Zurich suburb, he’d have to eat his words. Kids always win their annual Masters indoor tournament, which is, the organisers claim, the best under-11s competition in the world. It’s certainly popular – this year’s event had a waiting list of 250 teams. Invitations were accepted by Man. Utd, Bayern Munich, Werder Bremen, Borussia Dortmund, Zenit St. Petersburg and CSKA Moscow. To emphasise their global ambitions, Aarau enlisted Clube Nautico Caparibe from Brazil and the national under-11s teams of Ivory Coast and New Zealand. Hope they all got approval for time off school….

Completing the line-up were a further 17 sides representing Latvia, Turkey, Austria, more Germans and lots of locals. Having the top team in England, they wondered what the standard was like at the bottom of the English pyramid, so they invited the boys of Div. 2 cellar dwellers, Luton Town, who decided to send a couple of their Under-10s along as well – kids who weren’t born when we were raving about ‘young’ Michael Owen at France ’98!

As most kids haven’t yet encountered the phrases ‘fixture congestion’ or ‘premature burnout’, the teams were happy to play a schedule that required the finalists to get through 13 games in two days. (Four games in nine days, Harry? Where’s the problem?) Bayern finished top of their qualifying group with Luton as surprising runners-up. In the best UEFA tradition, the kids then had to slog through another qualifying group, where Luton saw off the Brazilians, Sachsen Leipzig and CSKA. In the knockout stages, they eliminated Werder Bremen 3-0 before squeezing past Zenit in the Semifinal on the golden goal rule.

Over 3,000 witnessed the Final, whose stars were the Da Silva brothers: more of Fergie’s fledgling Brazilians? Nope, these were Luton’s Cole and Jay Da Silva, who shared the goals that defeated Bayern in a 3-2 come-from-behind victory, the last goal hitting the net with four seconds left on the clock. The kids are now back in Luton, apparently unscathed despite a face-to-face encounter with Sepp Blatter, and in possession of a trophy that, at 137cm, is as tall as some of them!

Man. Utd? They didn’t even make the Quarterfinals. Good news for the rest of the Prem, circa 2019.

I’m sure Luton manager Mick Harford will be keeping tabs on the best of those youngsters and trying to shepherd them through the schoolboy and youth ranks towards professional life at Kenilworth Rd. With Luton on their way to the Conference, he’s going to need some new blood (assuming he’s still around) to help with their forthcoming campaign to regain League status.

Until next week, pals, look after yourselves.

Regards,
Prof. Statto
 

About | Advertise | FAQ | Rules | Help | Terms | Privacy
© 2008-2009 Score Five