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A Bunch of Fives So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.  He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember: “98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown Professor Statto and his amazing statistics. ====================================== Previous analysis Week 29.... Week 28.... Week 27.... FA Cup Round 5.... Weeks 25.... Weeks 23/24The Men In Red And The Men In Black Welcome back, friends, Well! What a weekend! Who’d ha’ thought it? Fulham winning away, and scoring three in the process! And loadsa goals! Even the ’Boro got one! Here’s a curiosity: the fixtures were the reverse of the Round 4 games, Sep. 13-15, when the season’s high of 35 goals were scored. Whatever chemistry produced that bonanza was at work again, precipitating 28 this time, but that’s still the highest for 16 rounds. Maybe the winter goal drought is over – keep your fingers crossed. For the record, five of those Round 4 results occurred again. Fulham broke their away win duck and doubled their season’s on-the-road goal tally. Arsenal repeated their earlier 4-0 win over Blackburn after the Emirates plumber flushed out the blockage in their goalpipe. Chelsea and Everton laboured at home to do what they had more easily managed away. I’m sure there was another…. Oh yes, that little local Red v Red encounter at Old Trafford. Suffice to say that Liverpool now have the only intact home record in the Prem, United’s goals conceded for the season went up by a whacking great 33 1/3% and the Kopites are still dancing on the ceiling. We haven’t yet got a title race, but one more slip by Fergie’s boys and the pursuers will really believe they’re in with a shout. In the mini-league of the Big Four, with Arsenal still to visit Anfield, Liverpool are now unassailable 4-1-0 leaders, having done the double over Man. Utd and Chelsea. For those who follow such omens, in five of the last six seasons, the winners of this little contest have gone on to clinch the Prem title. For some ’Pool fans I know, after years in the shadow of those other Reds and Chelsea, that double-double and the humbling of Real Madrid will be enough to keep them happy through the Summer. Weekly roundup The one game that promised most goals for the majority was Villa/Spurs, where 53% of you were prepared to overlook Villa’s lacklustre five home wins in 14 games and give them the benefit of the odd goal in three. So, six teams pegged to score a pair at home, and when the smoke cleared, there were…. none! I sometimes think they do it on purpose. From this, you’ll have gathered that no-one returned from last week’s safari with a bulging bag of points. Apart from the shock at OT, Arsenal’s reawakening was so unexpected that not even our most optimistic Gooner was confident enough to venture a four. A three for Fulham was equally preposterous, as was West Brom keeping a clean sheet at Upton Park. On the bright side, two of those 1-1 forecasts came to fruition, but elsewhere Perfect 5s were at a premium. Salutations to Rob and pmcculloch who went against the Villa Park consensus and profited with their 1-2s. Gareth and manucfc10 were similarly apart from the crowd in foreseeing Everton’s 3-1 win. Regarding that West Ham/West Brom game, it’s not the first Monday night bore-draw. Am I alone in being unable to recall a decent weekend hangover game this season? I’ll check and let you know next week. It’s nice to report that the Bookies got their forecasts wrong, with four aways and the draw at ’Boro in place of the home wins they were expecting. Doesn’t mean they lost money though! Top Players
FA Cup update Free to good home
Distinctly unaverage The Men In Black A total of 18 employees of the refs union, Professional Match Game Officials Ltd have officiated in the Prem this season. He of the tight shorts and loose interpretations, Uriah Rennie, has not, nor has Mark Clattenburg, for some reason. Some, like Howard Webb, are on duty just about every week. Others like Stuart Attwell are only allowed out of the subterranean regions in case of dire need. The charge most often levelled at the Brotherhood Of The Whistle is inconsistency, and you’ll see enough of that in the table below, which you won’t find at refworld.com, the refs website, or anywhere else, come to that. You’d think they didn’t want us to know! The first point to ponder, as I see it, is that Mark Halsey gives less than half the average number of cards. Does he have such a commanding presence that players are fearful of transgressing when he’s around? If not, there are two possibilities – he’s got the balance completely wrong, or he’s the only one in step. At the other end of the scale, we have Mr. Fussy, a.k.a. Mike Riley, who is an incorrigible flasher of cards, at a current rate of one every 19 mins 22 secs. (Actually, there was a ref by the name of Mr. Fussey in the ’70s, and strangely he was quite popular, among the fans, at least). In round numbers, you can divide Prem games into 40% Home wins, 30% Draws and 30% Aways. Naturally, there will be some variance from one man’s games to another’s, but I wonder if Webb realises his 12-10-4 record puts him in danger of falling into the category known among fans as a Homer? That’s nothing to do with the Simpsons, folks. If I was an away team manager, I’d not be too pleased to see Lee Mason, Peter Walton or Lee Probert doing our game either. But does knowing who the ref will be help us predict the score? Note I’ve worked out the average goals-per-game for each of the refs. Again, some variance is to be expected, so don’t expect Lee Mason to ensure there’s no more than two goals when he takes charge of Stoke v Middlesbro’ next Saturday. I’m going to keep an eye on this in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find comparative info from past seasons, and as for data on penalties, it’s conspicuous by it’s absence. I need to get OPTA on the case…. Who’s the best? On the assumption that PGMOL head honcho Keith Hackett gives the biggest games to his best men, Webb is the No. 1, by virtue of getting five of the nine Big Four clashes played so far. He’s also had Merseyside, Manchester and Tyne/Wear derbies. Of the remaining Big Four matches, Riley has had two and Mike Dean and Alan Wiley one each.
Until next week, muchachos, take care of yourselves….and the bees. Regards, |
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