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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 31.... Week 30.... Week 29.... Week 28.... Week 27.... FA Cup Round 5

What Scorefivers Think, Local Rivalries and More Kids

Hello again, all,

Welcome back! Despite the international break, I reckon we got a fortnight’s excitement out of last weekend. Last-gasp thrills with the leaders, sensations and tribulations in the North-East, and significant shifts among the residents on the cliff-edge overlooking The Chasm – all good stuff!

Whatever the experts, pundits and professionals may think, you ScoreFivers are also having your say on the Prem’s big issues via your predictions. As the kick-offs approached, more were expecting Liverpool to win away than Man. Utd to win at home. There’s more than the Liverpool Global Supporters League believe that Man U’s lead isn’t secure – see further details in Weekly Roundup. As for the arrival of The Saviour Of The Toon, 80% of you were wise enough to remember that Mr. Shearer is now on the non-playing side of the touchline, and thus unlikely to be able to prevent superior visitors like Chelsea taking home the points. Indeed, not one member of the Newcastle Global Supporters could bring themselves to vote for the home win in that game – and they were right not to, eh?

Weekly Roundup
Scorefive-wise, it was a week with plenty of points, with the majority of players picking up more than five results each and an average score of almost 19 pts. While there were no shock results, some of the scores did raise eyebrows. Four for Bolton and Everton? Crikey! Two goals and an away win for Stoke? Well, it was only at West Brom….and expected by 15% of you. Thanks to Sunday’s goal rush, the weekend’s total reached 26, which is back to early-season levels. Long may it continue.

You profited handsomely from the games at Arsenal, Fulham, Newcastle and West Ham, but there wasn’t a single Perfect 5 to be found at Bolton, West Brom, Everton or Man Utd.. While over 50% of you foresaw a draw at Hull, only ArseneAboutFace and Norm were on the 0-0 train. Is Norm finally gaining wisdom? Probably not, as he went for Newcastle to beat Chelsea – unlike the clear-headed Sarah Lou, of Newcastle GS league, who was no doubt sorry to be spot on with the 0-2. Bolton and Middlesbrough’s shot-shy reputations clearly went before them, as there wasn’t one of you prepared to venture a three-timer for the home team, never mind four.

A surprising 85% of you expected Liverpool to continue their recent blitz at Fortress Fulham. Not only were you backing the ’Pool to win, but 66% said they’d get two or more goals, which was a bit optimistic given the Cottagers 9-3-3 record and only 12 conceded. Only 74% had confidence enough to back Man Utd to win at home, but with a paltry 4% envisaging Villa scoring two, those of you who picked up 3 pts from this game were in the minority.

Among the leading leagues, it was another landmark week for AMNAS 1. Apart from the distinction of having three players in the Top 20, they became the first league to have all their members in the 500 Club with even lantern rouge Mrs. Giant on 508 pts in 58th place. There was however, one other group who rivalled the AMNASsers average score for the week – see below this week’s other high-performing leagues:

League	Players	Points	Average
Liverpool GS	15*	292	19.47	*excluding two Magic Mike pigpybackers
Man Utd GS	11*	225	20.45	*one ditto
Newcastle GS	8*	171	21.38	*one ditto
Crossmark	6*	131	21.83	*one ditto
Meywin	6	132	22.00
AMNAS 1	8	177	22.13
Archer	7	155	22.14

While compiling the above table, I was struck by the curious pattern of predictions in the Cyprus Liverpool Supporters League, where almost half the forecasts were for 1-1. A little further digging revealed that Christina, with all 10, and Kleo with 7 of them, were banking on a statistical miracle. Sadly for them, it was a bad week for draws.

Top players
It’s getting a bit stretched at the top of the Global Leaderboard, with Gilberto’s Goldmine posting a monster 35 pts to leapfrog Antomeno and Simoscy and close to within a couple of points of leader Lano23, who must have been thinking his 30 pts had put daylight between himself and the rest. Three weeks ago, 10 points divided the top five: there’s now a spread of 22 between Lano and fifth-placed Nick1.

All this week’s luminaries bagged a minimum of seven results and 29 pts, but there’s an honourable mention for Cockney Blue Jew, who located nine results in his 24 pts, with only Stoke’s win eluding him, as it did our other two niners.

Player	League	Supports	Points	Perfectos	Results
Gilberto’s Goldmine	Arsenal GS	Arsenal	35	5	9
Lano23	Liverpool GS	Liverpool	30	3	9
ArseneAboutFace	AMNAS 1	Arsenal	29	4	7
Gran	Crossmark	West Ham	29	3	8
Kojja2205	Newcastle GS	Newcastle	29	2	8

Daze of the weak Pt 2
My chart in the last issue showed that Mondays apart, the days are fairly even, at least with regard to goals scored, but they do seem to have strange effects on individual teams. In the Scottish Premier League, Motherwell dread Saturday early kick-offs. Going into last Saturday’s game, their record in these games was Won 1, Drawn 8, Lost 18, the only win coming as far back as May 2005. Unsurprisingly, they failed again, drawing with lowly Kilmarnock. In the English Championship, Preston North End are unbeaten on Tuesday nights at home since 2001, a sequence of 30-odd games. They know it, and they aren’t likely be scheduling any Wednesday fixtures soon.

Leagues within leagues
We all know about the Big Four’s crème-de-la-creme competition within the Prem, and those of you who support London clubs were probably up to date on their local pecking order before I heard last week that Chelsea were currently the 2008-09 Strong Men, propping up their mini-table. As you peruse the current position below, note the number of draws!

London	Pld	W	D	L	F	A	Points	Remaining Fixtures
Spurs	7	2	4	1	9	7	10	Apr 11 Spurs v West Ham
Arsenal	7	2	4	1	8	6	10	Apr 25 West Ham v Chelsea
Fulham	7	2	3	3	7	8	9	May 2 Chelsea v Fulham
West Ham	6	2	2	2	6	7	8	May 9 Arsenal v Chelsea
Chelsea	5	0	3	2	5	7	3

A Geordie friend assures me that everyone north of the Humber knows the status of the Toon / ’Boro / Mackems set-to. This season they have their country cousins from Hull for company for the first time. Once again, draws dominate. You’ve seen managers and players saying ‘We know it’s important to the fans that we don’t lose this one”. It looks like they believe it.

NORTH-EAST	Pl	W	D	L	F	A	Pts	Remaining fixtures
Sunderland	5	3	2	0	9	3	11	Apr 11 ’Boro v Hul
Hull	4	2	1	1	6	7	7	Apr 11 ’Boro v Hull
Newcastle	5	0	3	2	4	6	3	May 9 Newcastle v ’Boro
Middlesboro’	4	0	2	2	2	5	2

With the Midlands representation down to three, and in danger of shrinking further, it hardly qualifies as a mini-league. The other area where clubs are abundant is the North West, with seven. We’ll take a look at them soon.

The youngest ever team
With everyone getting excited about 17-year old Man. Utd starlet Federico Machado, you’d think we’d never seen players of his age before, but we’ve had 15-year olds, and, if you go back to the War years, even 14-year olds playing for league clubs. (I’ll bring you that story in May, on an important anniversary).

Last September, Arsenal’s Carling Cup side against Sheffield United had an average age of 19, and included a 16-year old. A couple of months ago, Conference side Weymouth were forced to field their reserves, virtually a youth team, when their first team squad went on strike over unpaid wages. (They lost 9-0). The Premiership ‘youth record’ belongs to Middlesbrough, who, for the last game of the 2005-06 season at Fulham, sent out a team with an average age under 20, with 15 of the 16 man- (or should that be boy-?) squad born within 30 miles of the Riverside. They lost, 1-0, and were unlucky.

As far as the whole Football League is concerned, the youngest ever team took the field this very week in 1966, when Port Vale’s team against Bradford City on Easter Monday had an average age of under 18. Who was the manager behind this radical decision? None other than the great Stanley Matthews, who had just retired the previous year, having played his last top-flight game at the age of 50 years and 5 days!

Have a good Easter, all. See you next week.

Regards,
Prof. Statto