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  05-Feb-2012 17:27 GMT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Previous analysis

Week 35.... Week 34.... Week 33.... Week 32.... Week 31

 

Welcome back, pals,

Fifty years ago, if you had cancer, the first you were likely to know about it was when you reached death’s door. Today, thanks to technological advances, over 50% of cancer patients survive, and that percentage is growing every year. The latest telescopes are allowing us to see ever further into the galaxies and unlocking the secrets of the origins of the universe. The human genome project has brought us to the verge of understanding how to create life itself. This is all wonderful, but most of those things don’t affect us on a day-to-day basis.

Today, we can land a space probe on a precise area of terrain on a planet eight billion miles away, so why do the halfwits at FIFA refuse to use a smidgeon of these technical advances to improve things that do affect us, i.e. to ensure correct refereeing decisions are made during big matches? Instead, they leave decisions crucial to millions of us in the hands of Norwegian amateurs. It’s a joke.

Which reminds me, congratulations to Barcelona on reaching the Champions League Final. I bet Platini’s happy. Congratulations also to Man. Utd, who deserve to be there.

While the Prem boys were careful last weekend to give us no new clues as to how both ends of the table will pan out, the rest of the Football League was sorting itself out for the 2009-10 campaign. All four divisions began their final round with places on the up and down elevators still available, and the serendipitous printed circuit boards of the fixture computer provided more Deadline Day crunch matches than anyone could have chosen.

If you only follow events in the Premier League, you’ve missed some excitement. The last playoff place in Divisions 1 & 2 was settled by head-to-head matches between fringe contenders, and both were decided by late goals. Five teams fought to avoid ownership of the last relegation place from Division 1. The last automatic promotion spot in Division 2 was resolved by number of goals scored when Wycombe and Bury finished level on points and goal difference!

The real drama though, was in The Championship, where Barnsley’s draw at Plymouth condemned Norwich to join Charlton and Southampton next season in Div. 1, ensuring some ex-Prem glamour next season at Hartlepool, Yeovil and other humble destinations. The three-way scrap between Birmingham, Reading and Sheffield Utd. for the second automatic promotion spot was compelling enough, but if you enjoy Tales of the Unexpected, the pick of the lot was the finale to the race for playoff places, which you’ll find in detail below.

Weekly roundup
With the Premier League’s fixtures roughly divided into Top Half v Bottom Half, you didn’t need to be a football Einstein to bag a bundle of points this week. Results followed expectations, nine of the top 10 won, all the bottom seven lost, and the ScoreFive elves found themselves working overtime, delivering bags full of points to your mailboxes. Round 35 is now officially our highest scoring week with an average of 22 pts per player. Dozens of you managed to pinpoint eight or nine results, with West Ham’s win at Stoke the one that threw all but 20% of you, and sabotaged a few Tenners.

Despite four teams scoring that hard-to-predict three goals, we had Perfect 5s for every game, though only Anvy foresaw Arsenal’s 1-3 at Fratton Park. As already mentioned, Stoke’s 0-1 reverse eluded most, but not Numba1 and DerekA. The other tough nut to crack was Man. City’s 3-1 but Numba1 was on the mark again, this time in company with Obi van Kenobi.

Top Players
For the first time, all 10 results were correctly forecasted, and three players shared the feat – Danbert, Obi van Kenobi and Numba1. Of the three, Obi’s effort was the most remarkable as his score was made up of Perfect 5s and 3s only. While making my round of all the leagues today, I noticed some amazing consistency. The ever-competitive Archers averaged 25, which I thought was a record until I visited Crossmark and found they had managed 28 apiece! Curiously, those other two dominant leagues AMNAS 1 and Meywin struggled to hit 20…an update on this little sideshow next week.

In Round 1, when Simoscy and Katona777 picked up 40 points, you were in the Top 10 if you had 25 points. This week, if you got 27, you aren’t. Even 30 doesn’t make the Top 5! In recognition of what is clearly a special week, we’re inviting in the entire Top 10

Player

League

Supports

Points

Comments

Danbert

Matts 09

Celtic

38

5 perfect 5s, 5 results

Obi Van Kenobi

Crossmark

Aresenal

36

3 perfect 5s, 7 results

Numba 1

Newcastle GS

Newcastle

34

3 perfect 5s, 7 results

Kevin

Meywin

Man Utd.

31

3 perfect 5s, 6 results

Laarni

Archer

Liverpool

31

3 perfect 5s, 6 results

Johnny D

Crossmark

Liverpool

30

3 perfect 5s, 6 results

Derek A

Crossmark

Everton

29

2 perfect 5s, 7 results

Go Behind Seaguls

AMNAS 1

Brighton

28

2 perfect 5s, 6 results

Mark Taylor

HK Corinthians

West Ham

28

2 perfect 5s, 7 results

Rob

Public 1

Man City

28

2 perfect 5s, 7 results

 

Quick learners
This first season of ScoreFive is a learning curve for all of us – I still don’t know if I’m doing my bit to keep you or the Supremo happy. As for keeping on the right side of Mrs. Statto, the less said the better. But one thing I do know – your average weekly scores are creeping up. As a demonstration, I’ve compared the points scored by a dozen of our Top 20 players in the first half of the season with the 16 rounds since.

 

Position

 

Player

Rounds

1 - 19

Weekly

Average

 

Rounds

20 - 35

Weekly

Average

1

Lano 23

323

17.00

 

369

23.06

2

Gilbereto's Goldmine

317

16.68

 

368

23.00

=6

Andeebuboy

294

15.47

 

355

22.19

4

Go Behind Seagulls

308

16.21

 

349

21.81

=6

Simoscy

312

16.42

 

337

21.06

17

240574

290

15.26

 

337

21.06

3

Antomeno

343

18.05

 

334

20.88

5

Nick 1

322

16.94

 

331

20.69

13

Arsene About Face

312

16.42

 

323

20.19

=8

Nigel Ball

326

17.16

 

319

19.94

17

Magic Mike

305

16.05

 

318

19.88

=8

NW2425

332

17.47

 

313

19.56

This also serves as a handy form guide, pals. Who’s going to be our Global Champion?

If we win all our games and they lose all theirs….
Every year, as the calendar reaches April, fans all over the world cling to slim hopes of clubs saving themselves from The Drop / reaching the playoffs / securing promotion / winning the league via four or five wins on the bounce, coupled with improbable slumps by their opponents. Of course, it rarely happens, but when it does, it’s a sight to behold. And this season in the Championship, pals, it did.

The principle characters in our drama are Cardiff City and Preston North End, with walk-on parts for Burnley, Reading, and Birmingham and lesser roles for sundry others. Consider the state of the Div. 1 playoff race on the morning of Saturday April 18:

 

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Points

Wolves

43

25

8

10

77

51

+26

83

Birmingham

43

21

14

8

50

34

+16

77

                 

Sheff. United

43

21

13

9

63

38

+25

76

Cardiff

42

19

16

7

63

41

+22

73

Reading

42

19

13

10

67

38

+29

70

Burnley

43

19

12

12

65

58

+7

69

                 

Swansea

43

15

20

8

62

48

+14

65

Preston

43

18

11

14

56

52

+4

65


Cardiff had been resident in the playoff places since mid-October, and with a game in hand on stuttering Birmingham, were considered as realistic candidates for direct promotion. Preston, on the other hand, had been on the slide since the end of February, and after only two wins in eight games, had slipped down to clinging-on-by-their-fingernails eighth. With eight points separating the two sides (not to mention Cardiff’s game in hand and a whopping great goal difference advantage of 18) Cardiff fans doubtless travelled north in good spirits for their game at Preston.

There’s not much intimidating about Deepdale or the 13,000 who usually turn up there, but Preston have made it a most difficult place for visiting teams to earn a point. Even then, 31 goals from their 21 previous games didn’t prepare anyone for the 6-0 drubbing they handed the Welshmen that day, which effectively ended their chances of a top-two finish. The following Tuesday, playing their game in hand at already-relegated Charlton, Cardiff conceded a late equaliser, which kept them in fourth place. Preston, meanwhile, remained eighth, still six points (and six goals) behind, with only two games remaining.

The fixtures for Saturday April 25th, game 45 of the Championship season, saw Cardiff, possessors of Div. 1’s second best home record, due to host their last ever game at Ninian Park against mid-table, nothing-to-play-for Ipswich, while Preston had an unenviable visit to Birmingham. At this point, Fate intervened by guiding the Ipswich board to appoint Roy Keane as their manager 48 hours before the match. The Ipswich players, clearly keen to impress their new gaffer, ran rings round Cardiff for a 0-3 win. Birmingham, with the Premier League one win away, dominated their game but failed to prevent a committed Preston from grabbing all three points via an 89th minute Ross Wallace strike. A win for Reading, a draw for Burnley and a loss for Swansea meant the position at kick-off time last Sunday was:

 

   

P

W

L

D

F

A

GD

Pts

5

Cardiff

45

19

17

9

65

52

+13

74

6

Burnley

45

20

13

12

68

60

+8

73

-

-----------

----

----

------

-----

-----

-----

-------

-------

7

Preston

45

20

11

14

64

53

+11

71

As they headed for Sheffield and their Deadline Day showdown with the Wednesday, Cardiff fans, or at least the mathematically astute among them, could console themselves with the knowledge that of 27 possible win-lose-draw permutations for themselves, Burnley and Preston, only one could leave them outside the playoff places – and even then, they might survive on number of goals scored.

Burnley have played more games this season than any other English team with the exception of Man. Utd. They ought to have been weary, but if they were, Mr. Coyle’s boys showed to sign of it as they demolished Bristol City 4-0 to guarantee their own place in the post-season hoopla. Cardiff, clearly nervous, failed to create any clear chances and fell behind on 71 minutes when Darren Purse failed to control a cross. Wednesday’s Jermaine Johnson collected the ball and fired home from the edge of the box. Three minutes later, radio reports brought news from Preston that the home team had taken a 2-1 lead against QPR. In a frantic ending, North End defenders made two injury-time goal-line clearances while Cardiff huffed and puffed but failed to blow the Owls house down. When the final whistles had sounded and the smoke had cleared, this is how the table looked:

   

P

W

L

D

F

A

GD

Pts

5

Burnley

46 21 13 12 72 60 +12 76

6

Preston

46

21

11

14

66

54

+12

74

-

-----------

----

----

------

-----

-----

-----

-------

-------

7

Cardiff

46

19

17

9

65

53

+12

74

Preston, by winning their last four games, had edged out Cardiff, who in the same time collected one point. With both sides having identical points and goal differences, Preston clinched the last playoff place by virtue of having scored one goal more! If they’d only beaten Cardiff 5-0 three weeks before, they’d have missed out – bear that in mind next time you see a team playing out time for a 1-0 win!

Last month in this space I was offering condolences to our PNE fan Biggy Culls after his boys lost at home to seemingly extinguish their promotion hopes. I’m sure he’s smiling now, as his team head to a playoff meeting this weekend with Sheffield Utd. I wonder if West Brom and the North-East Quartet noted North End’s achievement? With three games left, they have rather less of a hill to climb.

Cementing his name in history
If you enjoy the weird, wacky and wonderful football videos that populate YouTube, be careful – there are enough to consume your every waking minute. I do recommend this one though – a goal scored by Luis Angel Landin of Mexico’s Cruz Azul, who go by the wonderful nickname of the Cement Machine or Los Cementeros. It’s a scorpion kick reminiscent of Rene Higuita – remember him, Colombian goalie of the ’90s? A Spanish friend assures me that trying to score this way is a favourite pastime among Latin players, but success is rarer than an Anelka smile.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gE3ZSibbDs


NB don’t blame me if you get stuck watching all the Higuita clips that pop up after it.

Until next week, pals, look after yourselves – and any blind refs you encounter

Regards,
Prof. Statto
 

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