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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 36.... Week 35.... Week 34.... Week 33.... Week 32.... Week 31

Arsene's Eyesight, Man U. Outtasight, The Knowledge Website

Howdy pals, hope all is well with you.

Since the arrival of Roman Abramovich at Chelsea, they’ve become the least favourite club of countless fans (who secretly would all like his sort of money at their club), but last Thursday, there was more-or-less universal sympathy for them after they were denied a couple of legitimate penalty claims, and along with that, the likelihood of a place in the Champions League final. The failure of a few of their players to accept defeat in a sporting manner did them no favours, and could yet result in bans next season, but you have to admire the way the side regrouped in time to give Arsenal a businesslike tonking on Sunday. Even Drogba behaved!

I’m a great admirer of Arsene Wenger, but it’s time he had his eyesight checked. Over the years, he’s failed to see numerous red-card tackles by his men, but this season, he’s seeing things that aren’t there. No matter what he says, his emerging young players are not on the verge of becoming world-beaters or even title-challengers. The game with Chelsea demonstrated the gap between the teams is more than the nine points the Premier League table shows. He’ll need to wave wads of serious wonga this summer if he expects to get closer to the really big boys – and keep his disillusioned stars. It will be interesting to see how many changes he makes for the visit to Man. Utd. this weekend.

As for the Champions, they responded to Liverpool’s relentless chase by maintaining the gap between themselves and second place on Sunday by defeating their City neighbours without needing to move out of third gear. For most of Wednesday night’s game at Wigan they struggled, but as so many times before, they ground out a win. With only a point now needed to confirm their third successive title, they have the opportunity to do it in front of their own fans – and Arsenal’s – this weekend.

While the denouement at the top isn’t in much doubt, the Relegation Handicap is still wide open with only two fences left to jump. Mowbray’s Muppets have surprised the bookies by coming up on the rails as the four North East nags struggle to respond to the urgings of their fanatical backers. Since I mentioned their recent combined efforts two weeks ago (P20 W2 D3 L15) they have progressed, if that’s the right word, to a cumulative P28, W3 D4 L21. The one additional win was of course Newcastle’s victory in Monday night’s derby with Middlesbrough, so the group maintain it’s recent history of being unable to beat anyone from outside their own area, or in Hull’s case, anyone at all.

At least we now have a change in the bottom three, with Hull replacing Newcastle. The pundits have been saying all season “40 points will ensure safety”. More likely the magic number will now be as low as 37. With Liverpool at Albion this weekend, it’s hard to envisage the home side pulling off a second Great Escape this decade. Realistically, ’Boro need two wins for a chance of safety – I can’t see that happening either. If those two are destined for the knacker’s yard, then I fear they will be joined by Hull. If the Tigers don’t win on Saturday at Bolton, what chance have they in their final game with Fergie’s mob? Even if all the bottom three achieve a pair of surprising wins, they’re still dependent on those above them losing.

Sunderland and Newcastle are at least masters of their own destiny. Like Hull, the Mackems have a last-day nightmare in the offing (a visit from Chelsea) so they need something from their imminent visit to Portsmouth. I think they’d settle for one of those Monday night 0-0 borefests. An away record of two wins in 18 matches suggests that Newcastle had better make the most of their last home game on Saturday – versus Fulham – rather than rely on a 38th-game win at Aston Villa for their survival.

But who’s coming up?
While those unfortunates valiantly resist the opportunity of a trip to the seaside (Blackpool) next season, we do know two, or maybe two and a half, of their replacements. With Birmingham assured of Prem football along with Wolves, we only await the result of the Championship playoff final between Sheffield Utd and the mighty minnows of Burnley, whose small squad has now reached 60 games for the season. If they win No. 61, fans around the world are going to be asking “Who?”

A short lesson. Burnley is a town of 90,000 in the North-West, and they wouldn’t be short of derby games – Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and Manchester are nearby. The town’s team were founder members of the league and have been at their Turf Moor home since 1883. They’ve been outside the top division since 1970 and have endured some hard times – they came within minutes of falling out of the league on the last day of the 1986-87 season.

They’re an easy target for dismissive sophisticates: “A declining town on a Pennine hillside where there are people who still work in textile mills. The team’s sponsor is a pie company. It still costs less than 20 quid to get in. Their average gate is only 13,000”. Yes, stereotype Northern fodder for comedians. But in eight Cup games against Prem. teams this season, their record is W4 D2 L2, including wins over Arsenal and Spurs! They held Chelsea at the Bridge. Star players? None, unless you count their manager Owen Coyle, who will end up at a big club some day. A former Bolton and Republic of Ireland striker, he was still playing in Scotland, aged 40, two years ago! His team has some clever players, a great work ethic, guts, and more guts. If you’re looking for a pointer to the Wembley outcome, Burnley have already beaten the Blades twice this season.

If it’s third time lucky for Sheffield on May 25th, they will feel there is some justice in the world: they were cruelly relegated from the Prem on goal difference in the last-day nail-biter of 2006-07, when they faced Wigan with the loser guaranteed The Drop. The teams finished level on points with Sheffield having an inferior goal difference of one. One!

Whoever wins, you can bet that all three promoted managers will spend some time in their summer holidays studying the survival methods of Tony Pulis and Big Sam.

Weekly roundup
With the update for 10 of the week’s 11 results posted as I write, it’s certain to be a modest week points-wise. The average score is in the mid-teens, but by the time the Wigan/Man Utd points are added, 90% of you are going to be happier, as that’s how many went for the away win. We had four teams scoring 3, and that number always creates problems. As it occurs less than twice a week on average, 3s are tough to locate. Just to make things worse, this week’s 3-merchants included serial misfirers Fulham, Stoke and Newcastle. Small wonderthat their fixtures generated a paltry two Perfectos – well done Dramaqueen (for Fulham) and Nobbystyle (for West Brom). 

With Arsenal on a four-month run of clean sheets in the league at the Emirates, I was surprised how many of you – almost 90% - expected Chelsea to score. Maybe you did your predictions just after the Gunners had been embarrassed in that Champions League semifinal second leg! No-one expected them to ship four though, thus we had a second game without a ’fiver.

Top Players
At the top of the Global Leaderboard, Lano23 and Gilberto are still cheek by jowl, with Antomeno needing two big scores from the remaining weeks if he’s going to get involved in their duel. It’s a short list of luminaries this week, and the Wigan/MU points aren’t going to catapult anyone from the nether regions to join these four. Drum-roll, then, for our Week 36 leaders:

Player	League	Supports	Points	Comments
Gilberto's Goldmine	Arsenal GS	Arsenal	27	3 x Perfect 5s, 3 results
Graeme Duncan	Dublin Jack	Aberdeen	27	2 x Perfect 5s, 3 results
Dramaqueen	Chelsea GS	Chelsea	23
nm2425	FSF	Leeds	23

Keep things in perspective
The media’s overkill coverage of Monday’s Newcastle-Middlesbrough game might have led some folk to think this was some sort of unique make-or-break event. Apart from the Sheff Utd-Wigan game I mentioned, history has tons more gripping last-gasp promotion and relegation tales. Staying in the North East, there was the final game of the 1927-28 season, when Sunderland travelled to Middlesbrough needing a point to retain their First Division status. A Sunderland win, however, would relegate the ’Boro.

Can you imagine the pandemonium if that circumstance re-occurred today? In the event, Sunderland did win, 3-0. (Any ’Boro fans fearing a similar sad outcome to their efforts this season can take heart from the fact that their team bounced straight back the following year, winning a Division Two that included Chelsea….and Clapton Orient).

How long?
You know how it is: your team’s ahead and then they announce “There will be a minimum of X minutes added time”, when you just want the whistle. I saw an amazing story last week concerning a recent game in England’s Isthmian League. Champions Dover Athletic were away at third-place Tonbridge Angels. The game finished 0-2, and the record books won’t show anything remarkable about the game (other than the appearance of a substitute named Lewis Hamilton!) All the same, this match will live long in the memory of football trivia buffs due to the exceptional amount of time added on to the first half.

The saga began with an injury to Tonbridge’s Lee Browning, who was knocked out cold and required treatment on the pitch before he could be taken to hospital. Delay? 26 minutes. Shortly after that, the ref hobbled off with an injury. One of the linos took his place so another had to be found. Then the Tonbridge ’keeper was sent off, followed by one of the Dover centre-backs. By this time, tempers were fraying on the touchline, and in due course both managers were expelled. The halftime whistle for this 3pm kickoff was blown at 4.28, meaning that almost 43 minutes had been added! I think even Fergie would find that enough.

I read this story in The Guardian newspaper’s fantastic Knowledge column, where there’s an archive containing thousands of riveting football stats and stories from around the world. If you’re not familiar with it, you’re missing out on something special. Check it out now – you’ll be hooked.

www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/may/13/the-knowledge-football-speed-champions-relegation

See you next week, pals, when I’ll have a tale for you that includes what I think is the most remarkable, never-to-be-equalled team statistic in the history of football.

Till then, take care.

Regards,
Prof. Statto