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  05-Feb-2012 17:23 GMT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Previous analysis

Week 38.... Week 37.... Week 36.... Week 35.... Week 34.... Week 33

 

Hello again, pals,

Welcome back to those of you who are still here, unlike the employees of 14 of the Premier League’s teams, who have cleared off for their summer holidays, and in the cases of three ex-Prem teams, cleared their lockers to await an uncertain future in which the terms cost cutting and squad trimming will figure prominently. It must be worrying not to know where your next million is coming from.

While you were occupied on Sunday watching the Prem’s North-Eastern fleet sailing unsteadily towards the Bermuda Triangle of the Championship, there was an astonishing finish playing out in our Score Five’s Global League. With only four points separating our top two, one Perfect Five would be enough to see the title heading to Lano23 rather than adding to the riches in Gilberto’s Goldmine in Germany. Impatience got the better of me and I sneaked into the Supremo’s office and took a peek in the Predictions register. Here’s what I found:

 

Ars

AV

Bla

Ful

Hull

Liv

MC

Sun

WH

Wig

 

Sto

New

WB

Eve

MU

Tot

Bol

Che

Mid

Por

Gilbertos's Goldmine

2-0

2-1

2-1

1-1

0-2

2-0

2-1

0-2

1-0

1-0

Lano23

2-0

1-0

2-1

1-1

0-2

2-0

2-1

0-2

1-0

1-0

Not only had our leaders gone for all 10 results being the same, they’d also predicted the same scores for nine games! “Must be a mistake” I thought, and checked the files. Nope, that’s exactly how the guys sent in their predictions. Gilberto is usually an early bird, and he was the first player to register his votes for Week 38. Lano was in the middle of the pack, the day ahead of the deadline.

I then checked the breakdown of everyone’s predictions. Gilberto’s score selections were echoed by many of you, and he’d chosen what turned out to be the No. 1 forecast in eight matches, with the exceptions being at West Ham (where he had the 4th favourite) and Wigan (2nd favourite). Lano’s only variation was his choice of the 3rd favourite outcome at Villa Park.

Even with their predictions being the favourites of most of you, the chances of their sharing nine identical scores were over 85,000-1.

The implications of this coincidence then became apparent: even before kick-off, the destination of the title was decided! It could only go to Gilberto. With both players going for a Villa win in the game where their score forecasts varied, it was impossible for there to be more than a three point difference between the players in the week – and that would be just enough to see the leader stave off the challenger. And that, folks, is exactly what happened. Both players picked up 8 results, but Lano found that extra Perfect 5 with his 1-0 to Villa, and ended up with 23 pts to Gilberto’s 20, giving them totals of 760 and 761 respectively for the season. Congratulations to both of you, chaps – enjoy your Hong Kong visit, Gilberto! I trust the Score Fivers there will turn out to meet you.

There was also a twist in the chase for the final place on the podium, with Nick1 compiling a huge 28 pts to dislodge mid-season leader Antomeno, who chose a bad week to register 12 pts, one of his lowest scores.

Our final top three all made significant second-half advances. Gilberto was 16th after 19 rounds, Lano 7th, and Nick1 9th. Others who improved after New Year included Go Behind Seagulls (30th to 5th) Arsene About Face (22nd to 10th) and Kevin (=18th to 11th). Lower down the leaderboard, we saw some spectacular charges as dedicated types took advantage of retirements and inconsistency around them. From mid-season positions of 64th, 75th and 88th respectively, Andeebuboy, 240574 and HelloArthur2000 finished 6th, 17th and 18th. Some going, chaps, and a just reward for your persistence.

Other players just muscled their way into the leading group and stayed there – NW2425, Nigel Ball, JohnW, Simoscy, Obi Van Kenobi, Len, Cockney Blue Jew and Athlone Boys League were all demonstrating their marathon credentials before Hull City dipped a toe in the lower half of the league.

Some who were perhaps better suited to a sprint didn’t stay the course. Challenges from Patrick Ho, Damo Shanks, and Brownie fizzled out on the run-in, and they faded from contention.

Katona777 had a real rollercoaster ride, going from top spot early on to 27th at Christmas before recovering to finish 15th. Our revitalised ace tipster Magic Mike was another who got dem ole mid-season blues. If you needed his help, I trust you took it when he was at his sharpest in the early months or on the run-in. Finishing in the Top 20 didn’t look likely in November when he slipped into the 40s.

So, after all those ups and downs, our inaugural Score Five League season finished as eventfully as it started. The chances of two players sharing a long string of forecasts is remote at any time, but for the leading pair to do it on the first and last days of the season is incredible!

Apart from that, I’ll remember this Prem season for two things – a real title race and that humdinger of a fight at the bottom. Sometimes it seemed the intention was to achieve relegation, so doggedly did teams avoid success and cling to winless streaks. Other than their internal squabbles, the North East Mafia failed to win any of their final 40 games. The last one before that inglorious sequence commenced saw Hull upset the Craven Cottage applecart with a 90th- minute winner on March 4th. That, their only win in their last 22 games, turned out to be the difference between survival and damnation. From Phil Brown’s antics after the final whistle on Sunday, you’d have thought he’d led his team into the Champions League rather than the edge of the abyss. At Real Madrid, they’ve been known to sack managers after a title win!

While Hull will have only Sunderland for local company next season, the good people of the North-West won’t be short of derby games. The arrival of mighty minnows Burnley via the playoffs brings the representation from the old county of Lancashire to eight teams in an area not such bigger than say, Paris or Tokyo. From west to east, it’s Everton, Liverpool, Wigan, Bolton, Blackburn, the Manchester pair and Burnley. The Midlands too will have a bigger representation with Wolves and Birmingham City joining Aston Villa and Stoke. Add to them London’s five clubs and that leaves Portsmouth, in splendid isolation on the South coast.

With promises of bucketloads of cash for team strengthening already being bandied about by various Chairmen, it’s probably silly of me to forecast that we’ll be engrossed in another 10-team showdown on Main St, Trapdoor City next March, but I’ll say it anyway. Before any of you you rush to get a tenner on Burnley to finish last, you might care to note that in 10 games against teams they’ll face in 2009-10’s Prem, their record this season was Won 4, Drew 3 Lost 3.

The Nearly Men – still trying
I mentioned at the top that 17 teams have completed their season’s duties. The remaining three are Man. Utd, who are messing about in Rome, plus Chelsea and Everton, who contest Saturday’s FA Cup Final. It’s been a good, if unsurprising, season for the Cup, with the cream gradually rising to the top. Both finalists need the trophy to have something tangible to show for what has otherwise been a ‘nearly’ season.

After the success of the Mourinho years, Chelsea have been eclipsed as the Prem’s No. 2 by a resurgent Liverpool and as Champions League finalists by a Norwegian part-time psychologist. Everton’s small squad have made light of a succession of injuries while taking further strides towards becoming part of the Prem’s elite. Whatever the result at Wembley, Moyes is my Manager Of The Season for his continuing ability to get a quart out of the Toffees dilapidated pint pot.

In ScoreFive’s own FA Cup competition, we still have four players capable of getting to the trophy ahead of John Terry or Phil Neville, if only because one of them will take metaphorical possession when Howard Webb blows the final whistle rather than having to wait to climb those stairs to the Royal Box and shake assorted hands before lifting the Cup. Don’t forget those predictions, folks!

Weekly roundup
As you’ve probably gathered, there were no surprise results, but four scores did put a crimp in your collective endeavours. We had two games without a single Perfect 5, basically due to Arsenal and Sunderland getting too many goals, and two others (at Bolton and Fulham) with only one each, for Laarni and Johnny D respectively. All of this meant that the average score was 20-21 pts.

Having resisted the 38th and final opportunity to avail themselves of a Magic Mike Life, three individuals deserve special recognition. We salute you, Kevin (Meywin Posse) 240574 (FSF) – trust you enjoyed the Hammers win on what has to be your birthday – and JohnW (Public Lge 2). Technically, Magic Mike himself also qualifies, which raises the question, what happens if he forgets to do his predictions? Apart from these one-offs, see the Top Leagues feature below.

Top Players
Back to routine after the remarkable events at the top of the tree. See below the list of players who played to the whistle and prospered in Round 38. Also, if you’ve a moment, take a look at the Global Leaderboard, where you’ll see that all the Top 10 have crossed the threshold of the 700 Club.

Player

League

Supports

Pts

Laarni

Archer

Liverpool

29

Nick 1

Dublin Jack

Man. Utd

28

Rob

Public 1

Man. City

27

Brian Tang

Meywin

Arsenal

25

Michael B

F.S.F

Sunderland

25

Top Leagues
By mid-season, the members of four of our ScoreFive leagues were demonstrating a superior understanding of the Prem, and perhaps more importantly, a superior commitment, in terms of getting their predictions done. In mid-April, the multinational group of Fantasy Leaguers known as AMNAS Div. 1, based in Holland, had the edge on Hong Kong’s Meywin Posse, with Australia’s Crossmark and London’s Archers close behind. With the finishing line in sight, one of the AMNAS crew tired, leaving the rest with dead weight to carry. Their average slipped back, and Meywin reeled them in and pipped them at the post

League

Pts

Members

Highest

Lowest

Avge

 

Meywin

3999

6

699

614

666.50

3 in Top 20

AMNAS 1

5263

8

722

579

657.88

3 in Top 20

Crossmark

3919

6

696

622

653.17

1 in Top 20

Archer

4556

7

715

581

650.85

3 in Top 20

Remarkably, the entire Archer League didn’t use a single MM Life in the whole season. Self discipline like that is positively Victorian! Good work, Capt. Len, and my compliments to your platoon. They’re a credit to you!

Meanwhile, in Germany….
There’s a village in Bavaria called Teisendorf, where the small Privatbrauerei Weininger has been turning out excellent beers since 1666. If you’re ever on the road from Munich to Salzburg it’s worth the short detour involved. Their seasonal Hoglworther Maifestbier is particularly recommended at this time of year, especially with a plate of wurst from the brewery’s restaurant. This information came to me this week via a postcard from Count Zloli, who is a serious beer geek in his spare time. Clearly distracted by preparations for Bavarian tour, he forgot to do his predictions for the midweek games in our Bundesliga competition, and thus surrendered the No. 1 spot to Antomeno, who held on through the weekend’s final round to take the title of Deutscher Meister which I think Zloli assumed would be his by right. I wouldn’t want to be around when he finds out…. Anyhow, well done, Antomeno, hope this compensates for missing out on 3rd position in the Prem competition.

Next week, pals, in my last column of 2008-09, I’ll have details of our FA Cup and Champions League competition winners, a selection of notable Score Five feats from the season and some stats you seriously need to take note of – but only if you’re interested in owning the title of Score Five Global Champion next season.

Until then, all, take care

Regards,
Prof. Statto
 

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