Technology Partner


Community Partners

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Previous analysis

Week 3.... Week 2.... Week 1.... Scenesetter

HERE WE GO, HERE WE GO….AGAIN

Hello again, friends,
Well, here we are awaiting the start of a new season…. That’s how it feels to me, anyhow. So much has changed in the last two weeks: we’ve seen the arrival of 25 new Premier League players (although only four have left), while a further 11 have swopped clubs. We’ve had managerial departures from West Ham and Newcastle, and that staggering takeover at Man. City. Most teams have strengthened their squads, or at least, they think they have. It’s going to take some time to sort out the Winners and Losers from all this, but you can bet the players agents aren’t complaining.

“What does all this mean for ScoreFive?” you may be thinking. I expect a few more goals from Man. City and some extra effort from the Newcastle and West Ham players as they try to impress their new bosses, whoever they turn out to be.

Top Pundits

The third week of the Prem season threw up enough surprising results to baffle most of you. After scanning the Leagues, I’ve managed to find only one player who scored 20 pts. Take a bow, Forest Forever of AMNAS Div. 1. I do hope this was some consolation for your team’s 5-1 mauling by the Wolves.

There was no change among the global leaders, with most of them benefiting from Magic Mike’s predictions. The top four players (Bertie, Varora, Marcockh and Simoscy) have correctly forecast 19 of the 29 results to date. Bertie and fifth-placed The Gaffer each have 10 Perfect Fives. That’s some going, gents.

Second-best ain’t bad.

With Perfect Scores so hard for most of us to find, let’s give some thought to getting more results right. There are two elements to consider: how likely are Team X to score, and how likely are they to stop the Other Lot scoring? (or as it’s often known, to Keep A Clean Sheet)

The list below shows you how the Prem teams have performed in these respects since the start of last season, which is 41 games for all except Man U and Fulham, who have played 40. For this exercise, I’ve omitted the promoted and relegated teams.

	Kept Clean Sheet	Games Scored In
Chelsea	23	35
Man U	22	37
Liverpool	20	32
Arsenal	17	39
Portsmouth	17	24
Everton	14	30
Wigan	13	26
Bolton	13	27
Man City	12	28
Aston Villa	10	32
Tottenham	9	36
Newcastle	9	28
Blackburn	8	28
West Ham	8	28
Middlesbro	8	30
Fulham	8	26
Sunderland	7	23

I’m sure you expected to see the Big Four at the top of the list, but there are a few surprises. Look at Wigan and Bolton, who shut out the opposition more often than aspiring giants Spurs and Villa. Who would have thought that Spurs have scored in more games than Chelsea, or that Portsmouth would be second to bottom in that category?

With Spurs and Villa clearly better in attack than defence, it’s no wonder their last game at White Hart Lane ended 4-4! They are the only two teams whose games have averaged a total of more than three goals – keep that in mind when doing your predictions. The teams with least goals in their games? Wigan,. Portsmouth, Everton, Bolton and….Chelsea! They are all averaging below the 2.5-mark.

What the Money Men are saying

There are some difficult fixtures to forecast this week, so I thought you might be interested to see what the Money Men – the Bookmakers for whom the results are a very serious matter – are saying. They employ people called Oddsmakers whose only job it is to decide how likely any particular result will be. The predictions may vary a little from one company to another, but it’s unusual for them to disagree much. (If you’re unused to how betting odds work, see the explanation * below)

	Home	Draw	Away
Blackburn v Arsenal	7/2	5/2	5/6
Fulham v Bolton	5/4	23/10	5/2
Liverpool v Man Utd	2/1	11/5	13/8
Man City v Chelsea	7/2	5/2	10/11
Newcastle v Hull	7/10	5/4	5/1
Portsmouth v Middlesbro’	11/10	5/2	3/1
Stoke v Everton	5/2	12/5	13/10
Tottenham v Aston Villa	6/5	5/2	11/4
West Brom v West Ham	7/5	9/4	21/10
Wigan v Sunderland	6/5	12/5	3/1

Right, I’d better finish there. It’s time I went to check on my Aussie pal, Statistical Norm. A month ago, he bet that Robinho would make his Prem debut in the Man City/Chelsea game. Strange how these things work out, eh? On the presumption that he’s going to be right, he’s already begun to drink his expected winnings. Oh dear….

Good luck for the weekend, everyone

Prof Statto

* the first number of the pair is how many times your bet (also called your stake) you will be paid if you win. 5/1 means if you bet a dollar, you’ll win five (and have your stake returned) if you’re right. If the numbers are close together, e.g. 6/5, it means you’re betting on something that has a high probability of happening. If the second number is higher than the first, as in Blackburn/Arsenal Away above, 5/6, it is odds-on, i.e. it is very likely, and your profit on a winning bet will be less than your stake. When Man U/Hull or Chelsea/Stoke come round, expect to see Home 1/5 and Away 20/1 or something similar – it’s their way of saying “We all know who’s going to win this game” One final thought: no matter what the results, you can be sure the Bookmakers will make a profit.