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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 5.... Week 4.... Week 3.... Week 2.... Week 1.... Scenesetter

EVEN THE MOST UNLIKELY PREDICTIONS SOMETIMES COME TRUE

Hello again, pals

It's been another strange week in English football. On Saturday, Liverpool (certain winners at bookie's odds 2/9) couldn't manage a goal against Stoke, and Spurs (8/13) could do no better against Wigan. Among the Away fans punching the air as the refs blew for full-time, some were rejoicing because they'd been brave enough to put money on their teams.

In midweek, the new billionaires Man City, fresh from annihilating Portsmouth, were dumped out of the League Cup by lowly Brighton. They weren't the only ones left with red faces: Aston Villa, Fulham and West Ham were also shown the door by second-tier teams. For us supporters of non-Prem teams, it was good to see some overpaid prima donnas humbled. Among the fans of Brighton, QPR, Burnley and Watford, no doubt there some with an additional reason to be happy as they too counted their winnings.

All of that can't compare with a bizarre event in the game at Watford, where visitors Reading were awarded a goal when a deflected shot went four metres wide of the posts. If that referee and his linesman are seen enjoying hospitality in a plush Singapore hotel any time in the next 10 years, I'll believe all I read about the influence of Asian betting syndicates: their cock-up was great news for anyone with a bet on a 2-2 draw. Someone must have profited from it.

Speaking of bizarre events, I have a tale for you. Back in early August, when there was a lot of gossip about Robinho moving to Chelsea, my pal Statistical Norm put a bet on him making his debut in the match against Man City on Sept. 13. For a professional statistician, Norm makes a lot of daft, long-odds bets. This week, he's got a 20-1 double on Hull and Bolton to pick up points at the Emirates and Old Trafford. Mad. But back to Robinho: Norm also bet on him scoring, scoring a hat-trick, and scoring an own goal. A month goes by, the world changes and on Sep. 13... lucky, lucky Norm - he picks up some cash for the debut (albeit for the wrong team) and the goal (Robinho to score, said the betting slip).

It was a week after the City/Chelsea game when Norm was chucking out a load of his losing slips that he noticed he had worded that last one 'Robinho to score against Chelsea'! Who would believe it, another winner! It was only a one pound bet, but at 250-1, it was enough to allow Norm to celebrate by going on one of his legendary benders.

He and his liver are now recovering in the saloon of The Jolly Swagman in West London, where Norm is busy telling a bunch of his fellow Aussies, for the 19^th time, how he planned it all along. The only thing he can't explain is where or how he lost his pants on Saturday night. We can all learn something from this: even the most unlikely predictions will sometimes come true, and when they do, for a while at least, you'll look like a genius.

Top Predictors

So were there any ScoreFive seers who foresaw both those surprise draws? No. I couldn't find a single player who forecast Liverpool/Stoke as a draw, never mind 0-0. However, there was one player who nailed the Spurs/Wigan score: receive your applause, HKEagle!

Andeebuboy deserves a special mention for picking up eight results in his 26 pts, including 2 for having Spurs/Wigan to draw. 'Pool fan Nobbystyle (24) and exiled Tangerine FY8ontour (26) both found seven results but not those two coupon-busters. DoniAlfauzi only got six results, but four of them were Perfect 5s - 28 pts sir, well done! Pride of place, however goes to ArseneAboutFace for his 29 pts, with seven results and four Perfect 5s.

Abiding by the Law Of Averages

The table below shows you the Home and Away scoring record for the season to date: I hope it will come in handy as you consider your predictions for this weekend. I must admit, I don't place a lot of faith in the Man U line.... I'll update this periodically as the season unfolds.

Scoring averages

	Home goals		Away goals		Overall goals
	For	Against	For	Against	For	Against
Arsenal	2	0	2.33	0.66	2.2	0.4
Aston Villa	2	1	2	1.66	2	1.4
Blackburn	0.66	1.66	2	3	1.2	2.2
Bolton	1.33	1.33	0.5	1.5	1	1.4
Chelsea	2	0.66	2	0.5	2	0.6
Everton	1	3	2.33	1.66	1.8	2.2
Fulham	1.5	0.5	0.5	1.5	1	1
Hull City	1.33	2.66	1.5	1	1.4	2
Liverpool	1.33	0.66	0.5	0	1	0.4
Manchester City	3.33	1	2.5	2	3	1.4
Manchester Utd	1	1	1	1	1	1
Middlesbrough	2	1	0.66	2	1.2	1.6
Newcastle Utd	1	1	0.66	2.33	0.8	1.8
Portsmouth	1	1	1	3.33	1	2.4
Stoke City	2.5	2.5	0.66	1.66	1.4	2
Sunderland	0.66	1.33	1.5	1	1	1.2
Tottenham	0.66	1.33	1	1.5	0.8	1.4
West Bromwich	1.66	2	0	0.5	1	1.4
West Ham Utd	3	1	1	3	2.2	1.8
Wigan Athletic	0.5	1	2	0.66	1.4	0.8

Good luck for the weekend, all

Prof. Statto