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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 7.... Week 6.... Week 5.... Week 4.... Week 3

 

HOME SWEET HOME? NOT FOR EVERYONE...

Hello again, pals

While everyone else was occupied with World Cup qualifiers, I spent some time delving into the statistics behind the Premier League season to date. With 18% of the season’s games completed, a couple of interesting trends are visible.

Firstly, after years of a declining goals-per-game average, the upward momentum that began last season is continuing. Those of you who aren’t aware, note the parabola that is the total goals scored in the past five seasons:

03/04 – 1000,  04/05 – 975,  05/06 – 943,  06/07 – 931,  07/08 – 1002

This season’s 69 games have generated 189 goals, so a bit of arithmetic tells us that we’re on target for 1041. Good news, I think you’ll agree. Unless your team is conceding them.

Secondly, and more importantly, is who is scoring the goals. The surprising answer is, teams playing Away. There has been a sizeable shift in the Home/Away goals ratio.

              06/07    07/08     08/09
Home        1.45       1.53       1.42
Away         1.00       1.11       1.32

“Ah, it’s only small percentage points” says someone “It can’t make much difference”. Oh yes it does! Let’s look at the breakdown of wins:

               06/07      07/08       08/09
Home         48%       46%          43%
Draw          26%       26%          17%
Away          26%       27%          39%

The Home/Draw/Away split usually moves like Continental Drift; i.e. hardly at all - but look at what’s happened this season! The Away win percentage has shot up, mainly at the expense of Draws. In numbers of wins, it’s Home 30, Draws 12, Aways 27. I’d almost describe the change as seismic. In case you’re now thinking “Why don’t I see this in the Prem Table?” the answer is, you do, if you look closely. There are currently nine teams who are averaging more points per game Away than Home. They include the usual big names - Chelsea, Liverpool and Hull - and that promising young side in eighth place, Manchester Utd. Normally, there are only a couple of teams in that position in any division (except perhaps the Scottish lower leagues, where strange things happen…). I will be amazed if there are as many as five by the year end, but even that would be a surprise.

Are Home teams becoming complacent? Are Away teams playing a more attacking game? Is it all just a statistical fluke? As always, time will tell, but for ScoreFive purposes, keep the Away phenomenon in mind when making your predictions. Next week, I’ll update you on this strange phenomenon and bring you some detail on all the teams who are responsible for it.

Top Players
No high-scoring fireworks last weekend, mainly due to there being five away wins, although not the one most people expected, as Arsenal could only draw at Sunderland. I must firstly mention Magic Mike, who picked up something from all 10 games in his 21 pts. Compare that with the BBC’s Lawro, who trailed well behind our man with only 14 pts.

Not many of you could beat Mike: the clutch on 22 included MU fans nick1, Nigel Ball and Little Panda, Liverpool supporter raq, and surprisingly, my old mate Statistical Norm, whose habit of backing outsiders served him well for once. Who does he support? A bunch of bookies and their dependents most of the time, albeit unintentionally. One of the Arsene About Faces scored 23 pts and he’s now within a point of his twin brother, globally speaking. Andeebuboy went one better, with four Perfect 5’s in his 24 pts as he continued to climb the Global ladder. Hats off this week though to Wolves devotee Trapper of the FSF League. His 28 pts included seven results and four Perfect 5’s.

Too close to the wood to see the trees?
The recent exploits of Hull, unexpected even by their own fans, set me wondering: is it harder to forecast your own team’s results? Last week, only 15 of 38 Liverpool supporters in their Global League backed the Reds to win at Man City, whereas more than half the Man.U fans correctly nailed the game as a win for their Merseyside rivals. Maybe for some that was less painful than saying “A win for City”. From now on I’ll be keeping a look out for other examples of pessimistic or over-optimistic fans.

A safe pair of hands?
We all like a joke at the expense of our rivals. Here’s one I heard from a Sunderland fan:

Newcastle’s Shay Given was walking down the street when he saw a crowd standing in front of an apartment block. Flames and smoke were coming from the top floor, where a woman stood at a window, holding a child and shouting “Help! Someone, save my baby!” Shay sprang into action. He ran up and made his way to the front of the crowd. “It’s OK, drop the baby” he shouted. “Are you sure you’ll catch him?” shouted back the worried mother. “Don’t worry” shouted Shay “I’m the Newcastle and Ireland goalkeeper!”. The woman let the baby go and Shay made a great catch as it plummeted down. The crowd cheered wildly! Then Shay bounced the baby twice and kicked it 60 mtrs down the street…

Have a good weekend, all

Prof. Statto