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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis

Week 8.... Week 7.... Week 6.... Week 5.... Week 4.... Week 3

Hello again, pals

It’s called the “Curse of the Commentator”: immediately he has said “And Smith must score”, the player in question will balloon a tap-in towards Row Z instead of the gaping net. The defensive variation is “The San Marino striker hasn’t posed any problems for England’s defenders tonight...oh, he’s scored!” I fell victim to the curse last weekend after pointing out this season’s rising goals-per-game average. The Prem responded contrarily by serving up three scoreless draws on Saturday afternoon. Before that, there had been only four in seven weeks.

Likewise, I rambled on about the number of teams who were performing wonders away from home. Instead of the weekly average of four-ish Away wins continuing, we got one. As Mr. Simpson of Springfield would say, “DOH!”

I’m going to take this chance to get my own back: we’ve never had a 5-5 draw between Chelsea and Liverpool in the Premier League, and we won’t have one this weekend. In fact, I expect a dull, goalless draw. There you are, that should guarantee you a thrilling, end-to-end goal fest at the Bridge on Sunday. 

Home & Away, Pt. 2
Despite the events of last weekend, the Away Phenomenon is still alive and well. The Away win percentage now stands at 35% (versus last season’s 27%) and the Away goals-per-game at 1.29 (versus 1.11). Keep these things in mind as you formulate your predictions this week. The table below shows you the five teams who are Kings Of The Road, and three more who have a 50-50 record.
 

 

Pos	Team	Pld	Home Won	Home Drawn	Home Lost	Home goals for	Home goals against	Away Won	Away Drawn	Away Lost	Away goals for	Away goals against	Pts
1	Chelsea	8	2	2	0	8	2	4	0	0	11	1	20
3	Hull	8	2	1	1	5	8	3	1	0	6	3	17
9	Blackburn	8	1	1	2	2	7	2	1	1	6	7	11
12	Sunderland	8	1	1	2	3	5	1	2	1	4	4	9
16	Everton	8	0	1	3	4	10	2	1	1	8	8	8
2	Liverpool	8	3	1	0	7	4	3	1	0	6	2	20
14	Wigan	8	1	1	2	3	4	1	1	2	8	5	8
20	Tottenham	8	0	1	3	2	5	0	1	3	3	7	2

As I see it, we have three groups here: a) the Class Acts, Chelsea and Liverpool, b) the battlers; Hull, Blackburn, Sunderland and Wigan; and c) those who look good away simply because they’re so bad at home. Sorry, Everton and Spurs fans, it’s your teams I’m referring to. I won’t be surprised if the Class Acts continue as they’ve started, and at least a couple of the b’s likewise. There could be another joining them at the weekend. Bolton, doughty competitors / negative cloggers (delete according to your prejudice) and regular providers of nightmares for Monsieur Wenger and other top managers, have a winnable fixture at Tottenham. But the c’s can’t continue being so bad at home, can they?

Top Players
You now need 150 pts for a place in the Top 10, where Liverpool supporters (three of the top seven) dominate. In a low-scoring week, 24 was the benchmark for excellence. It was enough to allow CockneyBlueJew to reach the Top 10, where brownie is another new arrival. Little Panda and Kevin both climbed a hundred places up the global ladder with their 25s. Gf60 had two reasons to be cheerful – Arsenal’s recovery against Everton, and his own 27 pts. Happier still was Johnno11 with 30 – good effort, fellah! Perhaps you could have a word with JD, who could probably use some advice, after a disastrous 5 pt-week.

Just a coincidence?
In Italy, the top teams often employ a senior executive just to go out and recruit players. Variously called Sporting Director or Director of Football, his role is to intended to reduce the pressure on the coach so he can concentrate on preparing the squad for the next game. Naturally, for this idea to be successful, it’s essential for the Sporting Director to work in close collaboration with the coach, bringing in the players he most needs. There are currently two Premier League teams who are using this system. You’ll find them side by side in the table, right at the bottom.

Complaints Dept
It was almost 2am when the phone rang. I answered it groggily. A guttural voice boomed “Ja, Schtatto, how you are?” I groaned inwardly – there was no mistaking the aristocratic German tones of my pal and fellow statistician, Count Zloli Bachvortz. For some reason, Zloli only phones when normal people are asleep. Does his phone company give him free calls between midnight and 6am? “Schtatto, I your ScoreFife column haf been reading, und I a serious complaint haf. Only about der Britischer Premier League you are talking…. Der ScoreFife Bundesliga competition you are forgetting! We eqvality must haf, Schtatto - zo, your duty you must do! Auf Wiedersehen, Schtatto”. Click. The line went dead and I sank back to sleep.

Next morning, I clicked the link to check on the Score Five Bundesliga competition, where a select handful of you are following the exploits of Germany’s answer to Hull City, TSG Hoffenheim, and wondering how long Jurgen Klinsmann has got left at misfiring Bayern Munich. Top banana (or maybe that should be top salami) last week was Antomeno with a tidy 23 pts from the nine games played. Let’s see, who’s the tipmeister so far….well well, what a surprise, it’s Count Zloli Bachvortz!.

Have a good weekend, all

Prof. Statto.