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A Bunch of Fives So when all is said and done, we analyse where, when and the quantity of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, or failed to, and somehow deduce why it was destined to be so. That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, who brings us the benefit of his incisive intellect allied to half a century of football scholarship. And not least, his wry sense of humour.  He leaves the predictions to others, but he’ll provide you with the ammunition to sustain your challenge through your Score Five campaign. He’ll keep you up-to-date with what’s happening in the competition. He’ll lead you along byways exploring weird and wonderful facets of the game past and present, but always in his own inimitable style. Some comedian once suggested that “98% of all statistics are made up”, but the Prof. cordially invites you all to verify any information he presents – if only because he does most of the calculations in his head. Professor Statto and his amazing statistics. ====================================== Visit the Prof's 2008/09 season archives. Previous analysis Unlucky 13? Not for Breener…. Hello again pals, and welcome back for the roundup of our World Cup competition. Sorry it’s taken a couple of days, but computers sometimes conspire to hide data rather than reveal it. Along with the celebrations in Madrid on Sunday night, I’m sure the members of the ABF League in Ireland were cheering as their man Breener finished strongly with a 13-point haul to become the ScoreFive World Cup winner. Having already achieved their aim (it’s in the name – Anyone But France) by the end of the group games, it was a serendipitous bonus that an Irishman should scoop the top prize after that country had been cruelly denied a place in South Africa by the Hand Of Thierry. The Final wasn’t a classic, but I think we can agree that the ‘right’ team won, if only because the Netherlands abandoned their better footballing instincts in favour of trying to rough up Spain in a way that would have embarrassed hardmen from the more physical ’60s and ’70s. Indeed, it was the pre-eminent Dutch maestro of the ’70s, Johan Cruyff who was most critical of his countrymen’s approach. From the moment they kicked off against Switzerland on June 16, Spain’s formula never varied: pass, pass and pass again, staying patient, retreating half the length of the pitch if necessary, as they probed for an opening. Usually, one was enough: in the knock-out stages, Spain had four 1-0 wins. Overall, their seven games generated only 10 goals, which brings us to the matter of goals per game. World Cup 2010 saw the lowest average goals per game in the history of the tournament, continuing a sequence that began in 1994 at 2.71 g.p.g and has progressed, (or more correctly, regressed) to 2.67, then 2.52, 2.30 and now 2.27. Spain didn’t help this with their average of 1.43. Here’s a check on the teams whose games were and weren’t the most entertaining. No, let me rephrase that: those who had the most goals and those who had the least: 2.5 or above per game: Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Slovakia, Brazil, Australia, S. Africa, South Korea, North Korea, USA, Denmark, Nigeria, Italy. Below 1.5 per game: Spain, Honduras, Switzerland, Algeria, New Zealand, Paraguay The record books now need a few other changes: Spain became the eighth nation to win the Cup. It was the first time a European team has won outside Europe, and the first time a team has won after losing their opening game. Europe now has a 10-9 lead over South America as our thoughts turn towards the 20th tournament in Brazil in 2014 – by then, it will be 36 years since the Mundial was last held in South America, or 28 if you include Mexico, which is really Central America. Uruguay and Paraguay will already be looking forward to shorter journeys at that time. They, along with Japan, Ghana, South Korea, North Korea, New Zealand, the USA, Germany and the finalists all leave South Africa with enhanced reputations. Highlights of the Final and third-place matches The essential nuts’n’bolts of the last two games first: average points were 2.89, and with Banker, 6.45. Bankers were 71.2%, and Perfect 5s a very modest 2.9%. For the entire tournament, this meant an average score of 132.1, plus any bonus you scored in predicting the Group stage qualifiers – not everybody did…. There was a clear consensus in your predictions for German and Spanish wins.
Indeed, that’s how the matches finished….but not before one had gone to extra time, to the benefit of the 14.3% who predicted that Holland-Spain wouldn’t be settled in 90 minutes. The fact that 68% of all players picked Germany as their Banker was clear enough indication that the outcome of the final was by no means a done deal. Going into the final weekend, Epic held a three point lead, but two disastrous predictions left him with 2pts, his lowest round of the tournament. Second-placed Yingmeow picked the wrong Banker and ended up with 3 pts. This opened the door to the pursuing pack: Breener, Martinirossi, John Hillier, LivingTheDream and William J all picked up Banker wins to move ahead of them, while C4S1f52 (such a pretty name) and BobbyN also moved into contention. Among 13 Perfectos from Sunday’s game was Breener’s, which added insurance points to his overnight lead. Another with the maximum was William J, who thus bagged 12 pts and moved from equal #12 to #5 to overtake Epic on Banker points, a huge jump. Rivalling Breener’s 13 pts were joint #120 Graham Mutchell and Florance 1991. Another who advanced via a good final round was BobbyN, whose 12 pts took him from #17 to #8. As stated above, there weren’t many Perfectos – 21 from the Third-place game and 13 from the Final, but one player nailed them both. All Hail RobB, who top scored in the final round and joined Chicola and Klepto Cleaner as the only players to score the maximum possible on one day. His 15 pts enabled him to rise 139 places from #593 to #454 Top players of the World Cup competition With the later rounds having more valuable Bankers, Breener chose the right time to accelerate. En route to the title, he picked up 77 pts from Day 15 onwards, against an average of 51 pts. He finally overtook MartiniRossi, who had been in close contention from the group stages onwards. John Hillier reached the Top 20 on Day 8 and just clung on, finishing within a Perfecto of our champ. Fourth-placed LivingTheDream was another steady campaigner who was always in with a shout. Let’s not forget the category leaders. top Result pts: #46 Bangkok Blues, 80 top P5s #10 Diptesh, 15 top Goals, #57 Lano23, 59 top Banker pts, #134 Les Kerr, 33. Around the Leagues I was intending to include here a list of all Friends & Enemies League winners, pals, but there’s a snag. Deep in the ScoreFive archives, the file with all the tables is missing the World Cup Bonus points. If the top boffin Dr. Richard can fix it, I’m sure he’ll put up a list somewhere. Meanwhile, in Jo’burg Statistical Norm and Benjamin had been sat at adjoining computers in their hotel’s internet lounge on Saturday when they realised they were both logged on to ScoreFive. Questions and explanations duly followed. “So let me get this straight,” said Norm “You’ve been working in Germany for Count Zloli, and he introduced you to ScoreFive”. “That is so” answered Benjamin “and he will not be pleased when he receives my mail telling him that you have secured me a new position in Australia”. “Ah, hold on, sport” cautioned Norm, “best if you don’t mention my name…. y’see Zloli and I, we’re colleagues of a sort, and I wouldn’t want him to think I’d caused him to lose his Head Gardener. Might cause him to reject my candidacy for the board of the Global Association Of Number Crunchers” “But you did not know of my connection to him!” replied Ben, surprised. Norm considered this. “True, true, but to us statisticians, that’s hardly credible. Long odds, mate, long odds….” On Monday morning they logged in to check how their own World Cups had finished. “That’s a bummer and no mistake, #610, glad there were no beer vouchers at stake,” said Norm. “I did not fare much better – 513th position” replied Ben. Norm chuckled. “Strewth – look at Zloli – 167th, he’ll be laughing at us!” “He will not even know it unless his secretary tells him”, said Ben. “She does the predictions. In fact, she does most of his computations nowadays. A highly qualified and very efficient woman. If the Count is away for a week, everything continues smoothly. She is arranging to forward my personal effects and sorting out the financial side of my departure. The Count is still recuperating. He will not be told I am gone until he is in better health”. Later as they headed for Jo’burg airport to catch the evening flight to Sydney, Norm reluctantly brought to mind the chaos awaiting him back home in his office at the Institute of Big Numbers in Wagga Wagga. He seemed to be wrestling inwardly. Eventually, he spoke. “Hey Ben, that secretary of Zloli’s….how much d’you reckon she makes a month?” - - - - - - - - - - - I’ll look forward to reconvening with many of you when ScoreFive’s third season of English Premier League fun kicks off in August. Until then, pals, look after yourselves. Prof. Statto |
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