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A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done we translate the number of times a ball has landed in the back of a net, past and present, and somehow work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of football life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you…But whatever he says remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

”Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” ~Aaron Levenstein

”Say you were standing with one foot in the oven and one foot in an ice bucket. According to the percentage people, you should be perfectly comfortable.” ~Bobby Bragan

”Statistics can be made to prove anything - even the truth.” ~Author Unknown

”Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

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Previous analysis Round1 - Round2 - Round3 - Round4 - Round5

ROUND 6

Morning friends,
Statto here again, bringing you a Final helping of elucidation and clarity. Or maybe not.

D-Day has arrived! It just remains to be seen whether, in addition to being Decision Day, it’s Deutschland Day or Domingo Dulce (that’s Sweet Sunday o’course) for the Spaniards.

By common consent, Spain have played some of the most entertaining football of Euro 2008 and cast off their ‘choker’ tag in disposing of Italy in the Quarters, and Russia, most emphatically, in the Semifinals. Now they just have to get past Germany, who with three wins and two runners up places are the most successful side in Euro history.

There are a host of indicators and counter indicators as to who will be celebrating come 23.00 CET tonight. We’ll take a look at the more significant omens soon, but firstly, I think it’s appropriate to doff my cap to a bunch of you who have shown you’re a cut above the norm (and Norm) when it comes to predictions. “Nah, they’re just lucky” shout the chasing pack.

TOP TIPSTERS
At the head of the field and cantering towards the finish line in the monstrous Public League is Pink Gerbil, 56 pts. Ms. Gerbil is putting around the story that she knows nothing about football and “only signed up to help with the testing”. Yeah sure. I’ve heard there’s big Triad money on her. You may be interested to hear that top Hong Kong Gossip Columnist Lai Ying Trollope is reporting that Ms. Gerbil is sleeping with a top ScoreFive backroom boy! “It’s gotta be a fix!” shouts Lucasade, 51 pts, her nearest Public League challenger.

Over at the Manor House League, long-time leader Adam Highland on 55 is under threat after Jimmy picked up 7 pts in the Semis to reach 53 pts. This pair are the 5-pt kings, with five apiece. No-one else has more than three.

Sharing 4th place in the Top 10 with Lucasade is the mysterious C Harding of Swansea. This is clearly an alias. I note it’s an anagram of Inch Drag, so if you see a midget transvestite grooving to Elton John at Swansea’s Liberty Stadium today, feel free to say “Harding, your secret’s safe with me”. There’s a second equal-4ther: Tymja, also of Manor House, who could yet overhaul Adam and Jimmy with a 5 in the Final. As a Spurs fan, Tymja is used to disappointments and won’t be staying up late with the champagne on ice. A bottle of Tsing Tao, maybe….

The ScoreFive Supremo kindly invited a respected body of international footy experts from the AMNAS (A Marathon Not A Sprint) Fantasy League to his Euro 2008 party. I really can’t understand how this legion of cognoscenti doesn’t have a monopoly of The Top 10 positions. Even more curious, the leader of the AMNAS 1 League appears to be a girl by the name of Ruthless, the only other player to reach the 50 pt-mark, and thus in 7th spot in the Big 10. Gents, you’re in danger of being embarrassed by a girl who thinks Sheffield Wednesday is a Bank Holiday. Still, you could always ask her for some Draft Day advice.

What have all the leaders got in common? They got their predictions in. If Magic Mike had put in his Round 3 and Quarter-final predictions, he’d have 54 pts. Wonder why he didn’t?

MEANWHILE, BACK IN VIENNA….
Let’s review the finalists progress:
Germany: four wins and a loss. 2-0, 1-2, 0-1, 3-2 and 3-2
Spain: four wins and a draw. 4-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-0 and 3-0
They haven’t met since Aug. 2000, when Germany won a friendly 4-1.

How about the previous finals in the 16-team era? They’ve all been tight affairs:
1996 Germany 2 Czechs 1
2000 France 2 Italy 1
2004 Portugal 0 Greece 1

WHAT THE BOOKIES ARE SAYING
Spain are the favourites with all the oddsmakers. With Ballack now a doubtful starter, the market has moved overnight in Spain’s favour.
Spain 13/10
Germany 5/2
Draw 2/1

As for the match score, here are all the odds lower than 20/1
Spain 1-0 11/2 2-0 8/1 2-1 8/1
Draw 0-0 6/1 1-1 11/2 2-2 14/1
Germany 1-0 6/1 2-0 14/1 2-1 12/1

AND FOR THOSE IN NEED OF A MIRACLE
How have the scores in 2008 compared with previous tournaments?, I hear no-one asking. I’ll tell you anyway. Here’s the updated Most Frequent Score chart:

	0-0	1-0	0-1	1-1	2-0	0-2	2-1	1-2	3-0	0-3	0ther
1996-2004	12	7	9	9	5	5	13	7	6	4	16
2008	3	0	5	3	5	2	1	3	1	1	6

There are a couple of curiosities in the 2008 line:
- the previous most popular score (and the commonest result in English football), i.e. 2-1 has occurred only once, as against an average of four times in previous tournaments.
- We’ve still not had a 1-0. Most strange.

We may be ‘overdue’ a 2-1 or 1-0, but plenty of them have been predicted, and likely will be again, particularly if you believe previous Euro finals are anything to go by. If you’re in need of the full 5 pts to leapfrog your opponents, an unusual score is your best hope. In addition to the rare 3-0/0-3, you might also consider 2-2, 3-1, 4-0, 0-4 and anything including a 5 or 6, none of which have occurred this time.

I asked a few of my statistician colleagues for their views.
“The Krauts to run riot like a dingo in a chicken coop, Mate. 3-0, no worries”. Statistical Norm.
“Ja, Chermany ze vinner 2-1 must be. But mein garten, a disaster it is” Count Zloli Bachvortz.
“Porous German defence, old boy, leaky even. It’ll be Spain, 1-3”. Prof. ‘Clever Dick’ Smart.
“In the war of the Bull and the Eagle, the Lion will prevail”. Eighth Dan Kee-Ya-Soo. No, I didn’t understand it either.

Finally, however, there is a magic scoreline, which, if you had predicted it for every match in Euro 2008, would have put you in the no. 3 spot in The Top 10, with 53 pts. It’s not a bad idea for the final either. I can therefore exclusively reveal to you alone, that it is 2-0. But don’t tell the others….